#204 overall · NO · 210.0 projected half-PPR pts · -48.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 154.9
Tyler Shough — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Shough's 2025 season is the only NFL production on record, and it doubles as the entire three-year aggregate: 2,384 passing yards, 221 completions on 327 attempts, 10 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns, 186 rushing yards on 45 carries, 6 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost. That rushing contribution is real. Forty-five carries and three scores on the ground give him a dual-threat floor that a pure pocket passer at this tier cannot match. For a drafter building a deep roster who needs a late-round QB2 with some upside attached, Shough's legs are the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 210.0 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -48.9, placing him #204 overall and QB22. He sits in Tier 9. The projection is a modest step above his 2025 output, but the negative draft value is clear: at QB22, he projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. New Orleans has a Week 8 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 327 | 221 | 2384 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 186 | 3 | 3 | 162.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 327 | 221 | 2384 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 186 | 3 | 3 | 166.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 floor is 69.8 points, a near-total-loss season. The p25 sits at 129.3 and the median (p50) is 188.3, which is actually below the 210.0 point estimate, signaling that the distribution has a meaningful upside tail pulling the estimate up. The p75 reaches 264.8 and the p90 tops out at 330.6. That 260-point spread between the p10 and p90 reflects genuine uncertainty: Shough has one NFL season of data, a completion rate of 67.6 percent, and a turnover profile (6 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost) that can swing outcomes sharply in either direction.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Shough going at pick 154.9, which works out to Round 13, Pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #204 overall. At QB22 with a negative draft value, he is a late-bench option at best. If you are carrying two quarterbacks, he is the kind of name you target after your starter is locked in. Do not let the rushing upside pull you into spending an earlier pick; the replacement-level math does not support it.
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Questions drafters ask
He is QB22 with a draft value of -48.9, meaning he projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a late-bench stash, not a reliable weekly starter.
In 2025 he logged 45 rush attempts for 186 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. That is the only NFL rushing data on record, and it is the primary reason to roster him over a pure pocket passer at the same tier.
Very. The simulated band runs from 69.8 points at the p10 to 330.6 at the p90. The median simulated season (188.3) is below the 210.0 point estimate, which means the upside tail is doing real work in that projection.
Market ADP puts him at pick 154.9, Round 13, Pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is deep enough that you can wait and see how your roster fills out before committing.
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Beyond the numbers
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