Joshua Karty — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Joshua Karty's 2024 season is the headline. He connected on 29 of 34 field goal attempts, including 19 from inside 40 yards, 4 from 40-49, and 6 from 50 or beyond. That long-range volume is notable: six makes of 50-plus yards in a single season represents genuine big-leg production. He also converted 32 of 36 extra point attempts, finishing the year with a workload that supports a full-season kicker role. The 2024 numbers are the strongest argument for rostering him.

What the model projects

The projection is 81.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Karty sits at K34 and #327 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -86.9, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 73.4 points, a touch below the point estimate of 81.9.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 2.1 points, and the 25th percentile sits at just 17.6. The median is 73.4. The upside scenarios are more encouraging: the 75th percentile reaches 115.6 points and the 90th percentile tops out at 135.9. That gap between the floor and ceiling is substantial, reflecting the high variance that defines the kicker position. A strong season looks like the 2024 workload repeating; a weak one looks like the 2025 line, where Karty finished with 10 makes on 15 attempts and 23 extra points across a shortened sample.

How to draft him

Karty is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost benchmark to reference. At K34 and #327 overall with a negative draft value, he sits at the outer edge of the rankings. In a standard 12-team snake draft, kickers are typically the last position filled, and Karty's rank reflects that reality. If you are targeting him, expect to find him in the final rounds of the draft, if he is taken at all. The 2024 long-range volume gives him a ceiling worth monitoring, but the projection and tier place him firmly in late-round, low-priority territory.

His 2024 line was strong: 29 makes on 34 attempts, including 6 from 50-plus yards. The projection is 81.9 points and the 90th-percentile outcome reaches 135.9. However, his draft value is -86.9, placing him below replacement level at K34 and #327 overall in Tier 9. The upside is real, but the ranking reflects that most simulated seasons land well short of that ceiling.

Very. The outcome band runs from 2.1 points at the 10th percentile to 135.9 at the 90th. The 25th percentile is just 17.6 points, meaning a bad season is a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 2025 season, where he finished with 10 field goals and 23 extra points on a limited sample, illustrates what the low end of the band looks like in practice.

There is no market ADP available, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across public drafts to establish one. His rank of #327 overall and K34 puts him at the tail end of any draft. In a 12-team league, he is a final-round or undrafted option.

Over the 2023-2025 aggregate, Karty averaged 19.5 field goals and 27.5 extra points per season on 24.5 field goal attempts, with 4 misses per year on average. The 2024 season was well above that average in both volume and makes, while 2025 came in below it.