Ty Simpson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Ty Simpson is a QB on the Los Angeles Rams roster, and that context alone is worth noting. The Rams have shown a consistent ability to generate fantasy-relevant production at the position, and any quarterback who earns meaningful snaps in that system carries real upside. Simpson sits at QB32 with a negative draft value, which means the case for drafting him is not about his current projection. It is about what the top of his outcome band looks like and whether a late-round flier is worth the roster spot in deeper leagues or two-QB formats. His p90 outcome of 276.6 half-PPR points shows there is a ceiling worth acknowledging. The question is how likely a drafter thinks that ceiling is to materialize.

What the model projects

The projection for Simpson is 163.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -94.8, placing him #362 overall and QB32 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the quarterback position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 163.8 is the headline figure, and it is meaningfully below what a starting fantasy quarterback typically needs to deliver value. His bye week is Week 11.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band for Simpson is wide. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 40.2 points, a number that reflects near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile comes in at 88.5 points, still well below usable territory. The median simulated season is 132.7 points, short of the projection's point estimate of 163.8, which signals the distribution is right-skewed. The 75th percentile reaches 210.0 points, a figure that would make him a serviceable streamer in the right week. The 90th percentile climbs to 276.6 points, a genuinely useful season if it came to pass. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 236.4 points, one of the wider bands a drafter will encounter at the position. That variance cuts both ways: the floor is very low, and the ceiling requires things to break right.

How to draft him

Simpson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. In practice, that means he is available as a free addition in most drafts, or at worst a final-round flier. At QB32 with a draft value of -94.8, he is a depth option only. In standard 12-team half-PPR leagues, there is no reason to spend a meaningful pick here. In two-QB or superflex formats, the calculus shifts slightly given the p90 ceiling of 276.6 points, but even then he belongs at the back end of the draft or on the waiver wire. Draft him only if you need a handcuff at the position and have already addressed every other roster need.

At QB32 with a draft value of -94.8 and a projection of 163.8 points, Simpson projects below replacement level in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. He is a depth option at best and does not warrant a meaningful pick in that context.

His p90 outcome, meaning the top 10 percent of simulated seasons, reaches 276.6 half-PPR points. His p75 is 210.0 points. Those numbers represent real upside, but the median simulated season is only 132.7 points and the p10 floor is 40.2, so the range of outcomes is very wide.

Simpson does not have a market ADP, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available off the wire or at the very end of most drafts.

The facts on hand are computed for a 12-team half-PPR format. In that context he is QB32 with a negative draft value. His p90 ceiling of 276.6 points gives him some late-round appeal in formats that require two quarterbacks, but his floor of 40.2 points at p10 and a median of 132.7 points mean the risk is real regardless of format.