#326 overall · NO · 33.7 projected half-PPR pts · -86.8 Draft Value
Noah Fant — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Noah Fant is a New Orleans tight end with three consecutive seasons of receiving production on record. His target volume has been consistent: 43 in 2023, 64 in 2024, and 41 in 2025, averaging 49.3 per year over that stretch. Yardage followed a similar arc, with 414 yards in 2023, 500 in 2024, and 288 in 2025, for a three-year average of 400.7. He caught 3 touchdowns in 2025, his highest single-season total in the window, and his three-year average of 1.3 receiving touchdowns shows at least a baseline presence in the end zone. For a drafter hunting a late-roster tight end, that combination of target floor and occasional scoring is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 33.7 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits well below his 2024 output and reflects the full three-year picture rather than any single peak season. His draft value is -86.8, placing him TE50 and #326 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers put him outside replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 8.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 43 | 32 | 414 | — | — | 57.4 |
| 2024 | 64 | 48 | 500 | 1 | — | 80.0 |
| 2025 | 41 | 34 | 288 | 3 | 3 | 57.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 49.3 | 38 | 400.7 | 1.3 | 1 | 66.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 outcome is 2.2 points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons ends near zero production. The p25 sits at 11.2 points and the median simulated season lands at 28.4 points, below even the modest 33.7 point projection. The upside tail is real but thin: the p75 is 51.8 points and the p90 reaches 79.5 points, meaning only the top ten percent of simulated seasons approach genuinely useful fantasy output. The 2025 fumble total of 3, with 3 lost, adds a layer of variance that the band captures. This is a high-dispersion profile at a position where consistency is already scarce.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Fant does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is a free agent on the waiver wire in most drafts. There is no pick cost to roster him, but his -86.8 draft value and TE50 rank make him a depth option at best. If you carry him, do so as a handcuff or streaming option behind a higher-ranked tight end, and account for his Week 8 bye when setting your roster schedule.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 49.3 targets per year from 2023 to 2025, with individual season totals of 43, 64, and 41.
The p90 simulated outcome is 79.5 half-PPR points, reached in only the top 10% of simulated seasons. The median simulated season is 28.4 points, so the upside tail is real but not the expected result.
Fant has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so he is not being selected consistently enough to carry a draft-pick cost. He is effectively available as a free agent in most formats.
The p10 simulated outcome is 2.2 points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces near-zero fantasy value. His draft value of -86.8 already places him below replacement level at the position.
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Beyond the numbers
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