#351 overall · ARI · 166.8 projected half-PPR pts · -92.1 Draft Value
Jacoby Brissett — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and that is the honest starting point. Brissett's 2025 season is the one number worth holding onto: 3,366 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 315 completions on 485 attempts. That is a full-season workload, and it is the only one in his three-year record. The 2023 and 2024 lines are limited-action samples, 23 and 161 attempts respectively, so the 2025 campaign is the clearest read on what he can produce when given a full slate of starts. A drafter reaching for a late-round streaming option at quarterback could point to that 2025 line as evidence that a functional floor exists. Arizona's bye falls in Week 14, which is a relevant scheduling note for anyone managing a deep roster.
What the model projects
The projection is 166.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits well below replacement level at the position: the draft value is -92.1, placing Brissett at QB30 and #351 overall in Tier 9. The three-year averages tell the same story in a different register: 1,472 passing yards, 9.3 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions per season across 2023 through 2025, with the 2025 season pulling those averages up considerably from the limited-action years before it. The projection reflects the full picture of that record.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | 18 | 224 | 3 | — | 3 | 19 | — | — | 22.9 |
| 2024 | 161 | 95 | 826 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 62 | — | 4 | 44.2 |
| 2025 | 485 | 315 | 3366 | 23 | 8 | 38 | 168 | 1 | 5 | 233.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 223 | 142.7 | 1472 | 9.3 | 3 | 18.7 | 83 | 0.3 | 3 | 103.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 43.1 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile reaches 91.8 points, still well short of usable. The median simulated season is 137.3 points. The 75th percentile climbs to 213.4 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome reaches 279.0 points. That spread from 43.1 to 279.0 is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position, which reflects the uncertainty baked into a quarterback with one full-season sample and two limited ones. The upside at the top of the band is real; so is the floor at the bottom.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Brissett is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. In practice that means he is available as a free addition in most drafts, and any conversation about spending a pick on him belongs at the very end of a draft, if at all. His draft value of -92.1 marks him as a below-replacement option at QB30 and #351 overall. The appropriate use case is as a deep-roster emergency option or a streaming target in a two-quarterback league format, not as a planned starter. Roster him only after every positional need is addressed.
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Questions drafters ask
At QB30 and #351 overall with a draft value of -92.1, he projects below replacement level. He carries no market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough to have a pick cost. In a standard single-quarterback format, he is a post-draft addition at best.
He completed 315 of 485 pass attempts for 3,366 yards, threw 23 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions, added 168 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 38 carries, and fumbled 5 times, losing 4. That is the only full-season sample in his three-year record.
The simulated season band runs from 43.1 points at the 10th percentile to 279.0 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 137.3 points. That is a very wide spread, reflecting the uncertainty in a quarterback with one full-season sample and two limited-action years.
Arizona's bye is Week 14, which is late in the fantasy regular season and worth noting for any drafter considering him as a streaming option.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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