#342 overall · BUF · 83.9 projected half-PPR pts · -90.5 Draft Value
Matt Prater — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Matt Prater is on the BUF roster, and the 2025 season gives the clearest recent read on his ceiling. He converted 18 of 20 field goal attempts that year, missing just 2, while handling 49 extra point attempts and converting 46 of them. That is a high-volume workload by kicker standards, and the accuracy held up across all distance bands: 11 makes from 0-39 yards, 6 from 40-49, and 1 from 50-plus. The 3-year averages across 2023-2025 show 17.3 field goals made and 26 extra points per season, on 19.7 attempts, with 2.3 misses per year. The 2025 line is the strongest of the three seasons on record here, and it is the most recent data point heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Prater sits at K32 and #342 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -90.5, which is below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, discussed in the next section, tells a different story about the most likely outcome.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | 5 | 22 | 125.0 |
| 2024 | 6 | — | 10 | 33.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | 2 | 46 | 106.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 17.3 | 2.3 | 26 | 23.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons end at or below zero. The p25 is 6.0 points. The median simulated season (p50) is 46.2 points, well below the 83.9 point projection. The p75 is 105.7 points and the p90 is 153.5 points. The gap between the median and the p90 is large, and the floor is severe: a quarter of simulated seasons produce 6.0 points or fewer. Kicker variance is real, and Prater's band reflects it fully. The 83.9 projection sits between the p75 and p90, meaning the point estimate reflects an optimistic portion of the distribution rather than the typical outcome.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Prater does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In a standard snake draft, kickers are typically taken in the final rounds, and his #342 overall rank and negative draft value suggest he is a late-round or undrafted option in most leagues. If you are in a format that rewards kickers and you want a kicker with a recent high-volume season on record, Prater is a name to monitor. But the draft value is negative, the median simulated season is 46.2 points, and the floor is steep. Spend a pick here only after every other position need is addressed.
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Questions drafters ask
He made 18 of 20 field goal attempts and converted 46 of 49 extra point attempts, finishing with 2 misses on the season. His field goals broke down as 11 from 0-39 yards, 6 from 40-49, and 1 from 50-plus.
The projection is 83.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks K32 and #342 overall with a draft value of -90.5, placing him in Tier 9.
The p10 is 0.0 points and the p25 is 6.0 points, so a quarter of simulated seasons produce 6.0 points or fewer. The median simulated season is 46.2 points, the p75 is 105.7, and the p90 is 153.5. The range is extremely wide with a severe downside.
There is no market ADP available for Prater across the platforms tracked, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 drafts at this time.
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Beyond the numbers
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