#911 overall · ATL · 123.7 projected half-PPR pts · -143.7 Draft Value
Michael Penix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Penix is Atlanta's quarterback with two seasons of NFL action on the books. In 2025 he completed 166 of 276 pass attempts for 1,982 yards, 9 touchdown passes, and added 70 rush yards and a rushing score on 21 carries. That passing touchdown total was a meaningful step up from his 3 in 2024, and his 2025 volume — 276 attempts — was more than double his 2024 workload of 105. For a drafter willing to roster a deep QB, the 2025 trajectory is the number worth watching.
What the model projects
The projection for Penix is 123.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -143.7, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB31 and #911 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Atlanta's bye week is Week 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 105 | 61 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 47.1 |
| 2025 | 276 | 166 | 1982 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 121.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 190.5 | 113.5 | 1378.5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 40.5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 86.2 |
The range of outcomes
The 2024 and 2025 stat lines illustrate how wide Penix's outcome band can run. In 2024 he posted 775 pass yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions across 105 attempts. In 2025 those numbers grew to 1,982 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions across 276 attempts. The three-year averages (2023–2025) sit at 1,378.5 pass yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions per season. Fumbles are a consistent presence — 2 in 2024, 4 in 2025 (2 lost). Volume is the primary lever: more attempts have produced more production, and the reverse is also true.
How to draft him
Penix carries a -143.7 draft value and ranks QB31. At that position rank, he functions as a deep reserve — a third quarterback on a roster at most, and only in formats deep enough to reward carrying one. His bye in Week 11 is worth noting for roster management. Because no market ADP is available, there is nothing to say about when or where other drafters are selecting him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -143.7 and he ranks QB31, both of which place him below replacement level at the position. He projects for 123.7 fantasy points. At those numbers he is a deep-reserve option, not a starter.
Yes, in measurable terms. He went from 775 pass yards and 3 touchdowns on 105 attempts in 2024 to 1,982 pass yards and 9 touchdowns on 276 attempts in 2025. Interceptions held steady at 3 in both seasons.
He fumbled twice in 2024 and four times in 2025, losing two of those four. Over the three-year aggregate (2023–2025) he averages 3 fumbles per season — a consistent negative in half-PPR scoring.
Week 11.