#915 overall · ATL · 57.6 projected half-PPR pts · -201.6 Draft Value
Michael Penix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Penix threw for 1,982 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025, a meaningful step up from his 2024 line of 775 yards and 3 touchdowns. The three-year average across 2023-2025 sits at 1,378.5 passing yards and 6 passing touchdowns per season, which reflects a career still building volume. He added a rushing touchdown in each of the past two seasons and logged 70 rush yards on 21 attempts in 2025. For a drafter in a deep league who needs a late-game quarterback option, Penix is one of the few names available at this depth of the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 57.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Penix ranks QB40 at the position and #915 overall. His draft value is -201.6, placing him in Tier 9. He has a Week 11 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 105 | 61 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 47.1 |
| 2025 | 276 | 166 | 1982 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 70 | 1 | 4 | 121.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 190.5 | 113.5 | 1378.5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 40.5 | 1 | 3 | 86.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile reaches only 10.0. The median simulated season produces 19.4 points. The 75th percentile climbs to 64.5, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 125.8. That spread tells the story plainly: most simulated seasons cluster near zero or low double digits, but a meaningful minority of outcomes push into a range that would make him a usable streamer. The 2025 season showed 4 fumbles and 3 interceptions alongside the improved passing numbers, and that turnover exposure is part of what keeps the floor at the floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Penix is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In a 12-team half-PPR snake draft, he is a free agent in most formats, available on the waiver wire rather than requiring a pick. If a roster spot opens late and a drafter needs a speculative quarterback, he is a name to know. His -201.6 draft value and QB40 rank make him a depth option only, not a starter in standard single-quarterback leagues.
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Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -201.6 and he ranks QB40, placing him in Tier 9 at #915 overall. He carries no market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register one. In a standard single-quarterback league he is a waiver-wire name, not a pick.
He completed 166 of 276 pass attempts for 1,982 yards, 9 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He added 70 rush yards on 21 attempts and 1 rushing touchdown. He also fumbled 4 times, losing 2.
The point estimate is 57.6 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 19.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 125.8. The bottom 10% lands at 0.0, so the range of outcomes is very wide with a low floor.
Penix and the Falcons are on bye in Week 11.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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