#895 overall · NO · 38.8 projected half-PPR pts · -130.4 Draft Value
Charlie Smyth — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Charlie Smyth is the kicker for New Orleans, a roster spot that gives him access to whatever offensive volume the Saints generate in 2026. At the kicker position, that is the baseline requirement, and he meets it. His bye falls in Week 8, which is manageable for roster planning. Beyond that, the case is thin by design: kickers are late-round filler, and Smyth fits that profile.
What the model projects
The projection is 38.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. Smyth sits at K44 and #895 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -130.4, which places him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 2.6. The median simulated season comes in at 19.6 points. Things improve meaningfully at the upper end: the 75th percentile is 47.8 and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 71.9. That spread reflects the high variance inherent to the kicker position. A strong outcome is possible, but the most likely outcomes cluster well below the projection's headline number.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Smyth does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, that makes him a waiver-wire option rather than a draft-day target. If you are filling a kicker slot in the final rounds of your draft and he is the name in front of you, the numbers are what they are: a below-replacement projection with a low median outcome and a wide band. Spend your last pick on a kicker with a clearer path to volume before turning here.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him for 38.8 points, but his draft value is -130.4, placing him below replacement level at K44 and #895 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues at all.
The top 10% of simulated seasons reach 71.9 half-PPR points, and the 75th percentile is 47.8. Meaningful upside exists, but the median simulated season is only 19.6 points and the bottom 10% lands at 0.0, so the distribution is heavily skewed toward low outcomes.
He has no market ADP, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. He is effectively a waiver-wire candidate rather than a player to target with a pick.
Smyth's bye is Week 8.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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