#51 overall · BAL · 276.9 projected half-PPR pts · +17.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 45.3
Lamar Jackson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Lamar Jackson's 2024 season is the anchor of his case: 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 915 rushing yards, and 4 rushing scores. That is a dual-threat profile that very few quarterbacks can match on either side of the ledger. His three-year averages back it up: 3,466.3 passing yards, 28.7 passing touchdowns, and 695 rushing yards per season, with 3.7 rushing scores added on top. The rushing floor is real and it is consistent. Even in 2023, a year where his passing numbers were more modest at 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns, he still logged 821 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores on 148 attempts. The ground contribution is not a bonus; it is a structural part of his fantasy value every single week. His draftValue sits at +17.7, meaning the projection places him meaningfully above replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB2 and #51 overall in a Tier 8 placement. The bye is Week 13, which is late enough that it rarely costs a playoff push.
What the model projects
The projection is 276.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That number reflects a quarterback who contributes through both the air and the ground. His three-year passing average of 411 attempts and 271.7 completions per season establishes a consistent volume baseline, and the rushing component, averaging 118 attempts and 695 yards over the same window, adds a scoring dimension that pure pocket passers cannot replicate. The projection of 276.9 points places him at QB2 and #51 overall, with a draftValue of +17.7 above the replacement-level baseline for his position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 457 | 307 | 3678 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 821 | 5 | 10 | 336.2 |
| 2024 | 474 | 316 | 4172 | 41 | 4 | 139 | 915 | 4 | 8 | 432.4 |
| 2025 | 302 | 192 | 2549 | 21 | 7 | 67 | 349 | 2 | 5 | 219.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 411 | 271.7 | 3466.3 | 28.7 | 6 | 118 | 695 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 339.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that is the most important thing to understand before drafting him. The median simulated season lands at 276.8 points, essentially matching the point estimate of 276.9. In a strong simulated season, the 75th percentile reaches 333.7 points and the top-10-percent threshold sits at 377.1. Those are the upside numbers. The downside is where the band demands attention: the 25th percentile is 218.8 points and the 10th percentile drops to 120.7. That bottom decile represents a significant departure from the projection, and the gap between p10 and p50 is considerably larger than the gap between p50 and p90. The 2025 season, in which he threw for 2,549 yards and 21 touchdowns on 302 attempts while rushing for only 349 yards on 67 attempts, illustrates what a reduced-output year looks like in the historical record. Drafters buying the upside are also accepting a real floor risk that the band makes explicit.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Jackson at pick 45.3 on average, which works out to the 9th pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #51 overall by draftValue. If you want him, the 4th round is where you need to be ready to spend the pick. Given the width of his outcome band, the decision comes down to how much quarterback variance you are willing to carry. His ceiling, at 377.1 points in the top 10 percent of simulated seasons, is substantial. His floor, at 120.7 in the bottom 10 percent, is a real risk. Build your roster construction around that range before committing the pick. His Week 13 bye is a minor scheduling note worth logging at draft time.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 276.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 276.8, essentially the same number. He ranks QB2 and #51 overall with a draftValue of +17.7 above replacement level.
The band runs from 120.7 points at the 10th percentile to 377.1 at the 90th percentile. The 25th percentile is 218.8 and the 75th is 333.7. The downside tail is notably larger than the upside tail relative to the 276.9 projection, so the floor risk is real even if the ceiling is high.
The market is taking him at an average pick of 45.3, which is the 9th pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is the round where you need to be prepared to spend.
Over the 2023-2025 window, he averaged 118 rush attempts and 695 rushing yards per season, with 3.7 rushing touchdowns per year. Even in his lowest rushing output season of the three, 2025, he still logged 67 attempts and 349 yards. The ground contribution has been a consistent part of his profile across all three years.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →