#52 overall · BAL · 281.7 projected half-PPR pts · +14.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 47.8
Lamar Jackson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Lamar Jackson is QB3 on this board with a +14.3 draft value above replacement — a positive surplus that reflects what his dual-threat profile consistently delivers. In 2024 he threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions while rushing for 915 yards on 139 attempts. That is the ceiling version of this player, and it is a real data point, not a projection. Even in 2023, a quieter year, he posted 3,678 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 821 rushing yards. The rushing floor alone separates him from most quarterbacks at this tier — over the last three seasons he has averaged 695 rush yards and 118 rush attempts per year. The 2025 season was abbreviated (302 pass attempts, 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns), which pulls the three-year averages down, but the underlying skill set that produced the 2024 line has not disappeared. Baltimore's bye falls on Week 13, which is late enough to avoid most critical playoff windows.
What the model projects
Our projection has Jackson at 281.7 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output ranks him #52 overall and QB3 at his position, placing him in Tier 7 on the full board. His draft value of +14.3 means the model sees him finishing above the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR league. The three-year averages that anchor the projection — 28.7 passing touchdowns, 3,466 passing yards, 3.7 rushing touchdowns, and 695 rush yards per season — reflect a player whose 2025 workload was well below his 2023 and 2024 levels, so the projection is threading between a bounce-back and a continuation of reduced volume.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 457 | 307 | 3678 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 821 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 336.2 |
| 2024 | 474 | 316 | 4172 | 41 | 4 | 139 | 915 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 432.4 |
| 2025 | 302 | 192 | 2549 | 21 | 7 | 67 | 349 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 219.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 411 | 271.7 | 3466.3 | 28.7 | 6 | 118 | 695 | 3.7 | — | — | — | — | 7.7 | — | — | 339.2 |
The range of outcomes
Jackson's variance is real and runs in both directions. On the upside, his 2024 season — 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 915 rushing yards — shows what a full, healthy year looks like. On the downside, 2025 produced only 302 pass attempts and 67 rush attempts, a sharp reduction in volume that dragged every counting stat down. Fumbles are a persistent drag: he has averaged 7.7 fumbles per season over the last three years, losing an average of 4.67 per year (6 in 2023, 5 in 2024, 3 in 2025). The interception line has also been inconsistent — 7 in 2023, 4 in 2024, 7 in 2025 — adding another layer of floor risk. The key variable is workload. If his rush attempts return toward the 139–148 range he logged in 2023–2024, the upside is substantial. If they stay near the 67 he posted in 2025, the projection will be difficult to reach.
How to draft him
Jackson's market ADP is 47.8 — pick 4.12 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #52 overall and QB3. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the fourth round. At that draft slot, you are committing a mid-draft pick to the quarterback position, so your roster construction around him matters. His Week 13 bye is late in the season; plan your streaming or roster depth accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
His market ADP is 47.8, which works out to pick 4.12 in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is currently charging — expect to spend a fourth-round pick if you want him.
Significantly. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 695 rush yards and 118 rush attempts per year. In his two full seasons (2023 and 2024) he posted 821 and 915 rush yards respectively. The 2025 season dropped to just 349 rush yards on 67 attempts, which is the primary reason his three-year rushing averages are pulled down from the 2023–2024 peak.
It is a real data point that the model accounts for. Jackson's 2025 line — 302 pass attempts, 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, 67 rush attempts — was well below his 2023 and 2024 levels across every counting category. Whether that reflects a one-year dip or a new baseline is the central question. The projection of 281.7 points sits between his 2024 peak and his 2025 floor, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which direction volume trends.
It is consistent and worth pricing in. He has averaged 7.7 fumbles per season over the last three years, losing an average of 4.67 per year (6 lost in 2023, 5 in 2024, 3 in 2025). That is a recurring negative that offsets some of the rushing upside.