Michael Badgley — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Michael Badgley is on the Buffalo roster, and that is the starting point for any kicker argument. In 2025 he connected on 11 of 12 field goal attempts, missing just one, and converted 20 of 25 extra point tries. Seven of those field goals came from 40 yards or beyond, including two from 50-plus, which signals he is trusted on longer attempts. His three-year averages back the efficiency story: 7.5 made field goals per season on 8.0 attempts, with just 0.5 misses per season. The accuracy rate across that window is clean, and the 2025 volume represents a meaningful step up from his 2023 work.

What the model projects

The projection is 47.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits at K43 and #670 overall, placing Badgley in Tier 9. His draft value is -124.1, which is below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects a player whose role and volume are not yet established enough to generate surplus value over a readily available alternative.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, which is typical for kickers with uncertain roles. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 1.3. The median simulated season comes in at 10.1 points. Things improve meaningfully at the upper end: the 75th percentile is 49.6 points and the 90th percentile reaches 94.2. That top-decile outcome is real, but the distribution is heavily skewed, with the majority of simulated seasons clustered well below the projection's headline number. The gap between the median and the 90th percentile is the defining feature of this band.

How to draft him

Badgley has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In a standard snake draft, that puts him in undrafted or very late waiver-wire territory. Given a negative draft value and a median simulated outcome of 10.1 points, there is no urgency to spend a pick on him. If you roster him, it would be as a late-round flier on the off chance the high-end band materializes, not as a planned contributor.

His draft value is -124.1, placing him below replacement level at K43 and #670 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season is 10.1 points. There is no market ADP for him, meaning he goes undrafted in most public leagues. The numbers do not support spending a meaningful pick on him.

Over the three-year window from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 7.5 made field goals on 8.0 attempts per season, with just 0.5 misses per season. In 2025 specifically, he made 11 of 12 field goal attempts with seven coming from 40 yards or beyond, including two from 50-plus.

The 90th percentile of simulated seasons is 94.2 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile outcome. The 75th percentile is 49.6 points. Both figures are real possibilities, but the median is only 10.1 and the 25th percentile is 1.3, so the distribution is heavily skewed toward low-scoring outcomes.

There is no market ADP available for Badgley across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted. In practice, he is available as a waiver-wire pickup rather than a snake-draft selection.