Kyler Murray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Kyler Murray is a dual-threat quarterback, and the 2024 season is the clearest evidence of what a full workload looks like from him: 3,851 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 572 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns. That rushing dimension is real and consistent. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 50.3 rush attempts and 329.7 rush yards per season, with 3 rushing touchdowns per year on average. For a drafter willing to wait at quarterback, the 2024 line is the ceiling case, and it is a legitimate one. His bye is Week 6, which is early enough to plan around without much disruption to a playoff push.

What the model projects

The projection is 217.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at QB19 and #182 overall, placing Murray in Tier 9. His draft value is -41.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages tell the story behind that number: 2,204 passing yards, 12.3 passing touchdowns, and 6.3 interceptions per season, with the 2023 and 2025 lines pulling the aggregate well below the 2024 peak. The projection reflects all three seasons, not just the best one.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Murray finishes at 75.3 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. At the 25th percentile he reaches 139.2 points, still well below useful QB territory. The median simulated season lands at 198.0 points. The upside is real: the 75th percentile is 272.0 points and the 90th percentile reaches 335.1 points, a figure that would make him a weekly starter. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 259.8 points, one of the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position. The 2023 and 2025 stat lines, both significantly lighter than 2024, illustrate exactly how that downside materializes. Seven fumbles in both 2023 and 2024 are a persistent negative in any outcome scenario.

How to draft him

Murray's market ADP is 143.3, drawn from 2 platforms, which translates to pick 12.11 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-round pick, consistent with his standing as a back-of-the-rankings quarterback. The model has him at QB19 and #182 overall with a negative draft value, so he is a depth or streaming option rather than a foundational piece. If you are building your roster with the intention of streaming the position, Murray is a name to track. If you draft him, do it with the 2024 season as your upside target and the 2023 and 2025 lines as your floor, and plan your Week 6 bye coverage before the draft, not after.

The model projects him at 217.1 points, QB19, with a draft value of -41.5, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is better framed as a streaming option or a late-round dart throw on the 2024 upside than as a reliable weekly starter.

In 2024 he posted 3,851 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 572 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns. The 90th-percentile simulated season projects 335.1 half-PPR points. That upside is real, but the 10th-percentile outcome is just 75.3 points, so the range is extremely wide.

His market ADP is 143.3 across 2 platforms, which is pick 12.11 in a 12-team draft. You can wait until the final rounds to target him.

It matters consistently. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 50.3 rush attempts, 329.7 rush yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns per season. In 2024 alone he totaled 78 rush attempts and 572 rush yards. The rushing floor is a real part of his profile in any outcome scenario.