#236 overall · MIN · 208.8 projected half-PPR pts · -58.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 155.6
Kyler Murray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyler Murray arrives in Minnesota with a dual-threat profile that has shown real upside when healthy and on the field for a full season. His 2024 campaign is the clearest evidence: 3,851 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 572 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns across 541 pass attempts and 78 rush attempts. That rushing dimension — averaging 329.7 rush yards per season over the last three years — keeps his floor higher than a pure pocket passer at the same tier. If 2024 is the template, there is a QB1-caliber season somewhere in this profile. The question is whether he can stay on the field long enough to deliver it.
What the model projects
The projection is 208.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Murray at QB20 and #236 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -58.7, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. The three-year averages tell the story behind that number: 323.3 pass attempts, 2,204 passing yards, 12.3 passing touchdowns, and 329.7 rushing yards per season — a profile shaped by seasons of sharply varying volume.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 268 | 176 | 1799 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 244 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 149.4 |
| 2024 | 541 | 372 | 3851 | 21 | 11 | 78 | 572 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 306.2 |
| 2025 | 161 | 110 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 173 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 323.3 | 219.3 | 2204 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 50.3 | 329.7 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | 182.0 |
The range of outcomes
Murray's outcome band is wide, which reflects the volatility embedded in his recent history. The 2023 season produced 1,799 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns on just 268 attempts. The 2024 season nearly doubled that output. The 2025 season checked in at 962 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 173 rushing yards on 161 pass attempts and 29 rush attempts. Three seasons, three very different stat lines. A drafter buying Murray is accepting that the full-season 2024 version and the limited 2025 version are both live possibilities — and the projection at 208.8 points reflects that entire distribution.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Murray going at pick 155.6 — round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. That is deep in the draft, which means the cost to acquire him is low in terms of draft capital. Our rank is #236 overall against a market price of 155.6, so both signals place him in late-draft or streaming territory. His bye is Week 6, worth noting when constructing your QB depth. At this stage of a draft, Murray is a dart throw on the 2024 version showing up — not a foundational piece of a roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 208.8 half-PPR points, which ranks him QB20 and #236 overall with a draft value of -58.7 — below replacement level at the position on a 12-team baseline. He is best framed as a late-round speculative option or a streaming quarterback, not a reliable starter.
It varies sharply year to year. In 2024 he posted 3,851 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 572 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns. In 2023 those numbers were 1,799 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 244 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns. In 2025 he finished with 962 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 173 rushing yards. The three-year averages are 2,204 passing yards, 12.3 passing touchdowns, and 329.7 rushing yards per season.
Market ADP puts him at pick 155.6 — round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. You can wait until the final rounds to target him.
Week 6.