#913 overall · ATL · 87.0 projected half-PPR pts · -180.4 Draft Value
Tua Tagovailoa — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a strong fantasy case for Tua Tagovailoa in 2026 snake drafts. He sits at QB33 and #913 overall, placing him in Tier 9 — deep in the pool of quarterbacks who project below replacement level. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 447.7 pass attempts, 3,383.7 pass yards, 22.7 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per season. The 2023 campaign was his most productive, with 4,624 pass yards and 29 touchdowns on 560 attempts, but the two seasons that followed showed a meaningful step back in volume and output. His rushing contribution has been minimal — 55.3 rush yards per season on 24 attempts over the three-year window, with zero rushing touchdowns in any of those years. If you are building a case, it rests entirely on late-round streaming depth, not on any expectation of fantasy-relevant production.
What the model projects
The projection is 87.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His draft value is -180.4, meaning he projects 180.4 points below the replacement-level baseline at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR league. That is a deeply negative surplus. His bye week is Week 11. These numbers reflect a quarterback who, at his current projection, does not return value relative to what is freely available at the position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 560 | 388 | 4624 | 29 | 14 | 35 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 284.4 |
| 2024 | 399 | 291 | 2867 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 184.6 |
| 2025 | 384 | 260 | 2660 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 173.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 447.7 | 313 | 3383.7 | 22.7 | 12 | 24 | 55.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.7 | — | — | 219.7 |
The range of outcomes
Even in optimistic simulated seasons, Tagovailoa's profile does not project into fantasy-relevant territory at the quarterback position. His three-year history shows a declining arc in pass attempts — 560 in 2023, 399 in 2024, 384 in 2025 — and a corresponding decline in passing yards: 4,624 to 2,867 to 2,660. Touchdown production followed a similar path: 29, 19, and 20. Interceptions have remained elevated, with 14 in 2023, 7 in 2024, and 15 in 2025, averaging 12 per season over the three-year window. Fumbles lost have been modest (5, 2, and 1 respectively), but the broader picture is a quarterback whose counting stats have contracted over three consecutive seasons. The variance in outcomes exists, but the central projection at 87.0 points and a -180.4 draft value frames the realistic ceiling clearly.
How to draft him
Tagovailoa does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register one. At QB33 and #913 overall in Tier 9, he is a player for the very end of drafts or the waiver wire, and only in leagues where you are carrying a second quarterback or need emergency streaming depth. There is no round at which targeting him represents a sound fantasy strategy in a standard 12-team format. Roster him only if your situation demands it.
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Questions drafters ask
At QB33 and #913 overall with a draft value of -180.4, he projects 180.4 points below replacement level at quarterback. He is not a player to target in a standard 12-team draft — he belongs on the waiver wire or at the very back end of a roster as emergency depth only.
Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 447.7 pass attempts, 3,383.7 pass yards, 22.7 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per year. His volume has declined each season: pass attempts went from 560 in 2023 to 399 in 2024 to 384 in 2025, and pass yards dropped from 4,624 to 2,867 to 2,660 over the same span.
Minimal. Over the three-year window he has averaged 24 rush attempts and 55.3 rush yards per season, with zero rushing touchdowns in 2023, 2024, or 2025. His rushing contribution does not meaningfully change his fantasy profile.
He has no market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register one. He is a waiver-wire or late-roster option, not a player to spend a pick on in a standard 12-team snake draft.