Daniel Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Daniel Jones arrives in Indianapolis with his most productive season on record. In 2025 he posted 3,101 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and 5 rushing touchdowns on 384 attempts, the clearest evidence yet that he can function as a full-season starter. His legs remain a real part of his game: 67 rush attempts and 265 rushing yards in 2024, 45 attempts and 164 yards in 2025, and a three-year average of 50.7 rush attempts and 211.7 rushing yards per season. That dual-threat floor gives him a scoring path that a pure pocket passer at this tier does not have. For a drafter who needs a late-round quarterback, Jones is a name worth knowing.

What the model projects

The projection is 207.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Jones at QB24 and #211 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -50.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 207.9 sits above the median simulated season of 185.2, which tells you the distribution is not symmetric: the upside tail pulls the projection higher than the typical outcome.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. A bad season, bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes, lands at 67.9 points. A typical season comes in at 185.2. A strong season, top 25 percent, reaches 262.8, and a great season, top 10 percent, climbs to 329.8. That 262-point gap between the floor and ceiling is a signal of genuine volatility. His three-year history reinforces it: 2023 produced just 909 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns across a limited sample, while 2025 was a full-season breakout. The fumble rate is a consistent drag, averaging 5 fumbles per season over three years with 3 lost on average, and 8 fumbles in 2025 alone. Turnovers are the clearest ceiling-capper in this profile.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Jones at pick 191.0, which works out to round 16, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is deep in the draft, well past the point where most rosters are set at quarterback. His rank is #211 overall and QB24. If you are running a one-quarterback lineup and already have a starter locked in, Jones is a viable late-round handcuff or streamer option at that price. His bye falls in Week 13, worth noting for playoff-week roster management. Given the wide outcome band, the upside at 329.8 points in a top-10-percent season is real, but so is the 67.9-point floor. Draft him as a secondary quarterback, not a primary one.

The projection is 207.9 points and his draft value is -50.8, placing him below replacement level at QB in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB24 and #211 overall. He is best suited as a backup or streamer rather than a primary starter.

Over three seasons, his per-year averages are 2,026.7 passing yards, 9.7 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 211.7 rushing yards. His 2025 season was his best: 3,101 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 164 rushing yards, though he also posted 8 fumbles that year.

Very wide. The band runs from 67.9 points at the 10th percentile to 329.8 at the 90th, with a median of 185.2. That spread reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. His three-year fumble average of 5 per season, including 8 in 2025, is a consistent risk factor.

The market ADP is 191.0, which translates to round 16, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a very late-round price, consistent with his role as a depth quarterback rather than a featured starter.