#309 overall · IND · 190.3 projected half-PPR pts · -77.1 Draft Value
Daniel Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Daniel Jones is now in Indianapolis, and his 2025 season was the most productive of the three-year window on record. He completed 261 of 384 pass attempts for 3,101 yards, threw 19 touchdown passes against 8 interceptions, and added 5 rushing touchdowns on 45 carries for 164 yards. That passing touchdown total is nearly double his 2024 output of 8, and his 3,101 passing yards represent a clear step up from 2,070 in 2024 and 909 in 2023. The rushing contribution has been consistent across all three seasons — 206 yards in 2023, 265 in 2024, 164 in 2025 — giving him a three-year average of 211.7 rush yards per season. For a drafter who needs a streaming option or a handcuff at the position, Jones is a name worth understanding.
What the model projects
The projection for Jones in 2026 is 190.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -77.1, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB22 at the position and #309 overall, landing in Tier 9. His bye week is Week 13.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 160 | 108 | 909 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 63.0 |
| 2024 | 341 | 216 | 2070 | 8 | 7 | 67 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 142.3 |
| 2025 | 384 | 261 | 3101 | 19 | 8 | 45 | 164 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 232.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 295 | 195 | 2026.7 | 9.7 | 7 | 50.7 | 211.7 | 2.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | 150.2 |
The range of outcomes
Jones's recent history illustrates genuine season-to-season variance. Pass attempts ranged from 160 in 2023 to 384 in 2025. Passing yards swung from 909 to 3,101. Touchdown passes went from 2 to 19. That volatility cuts both ways. On the turnover side, he has averaged 7 interceptions and 5 fumbles per season over the 2023–2025 span, with fumbles lost averaging 2.0 per season (1 in 2023, 2 in 2024, 3 in 2025). A high-end outcome requires the 2025 passing volume and efficiency to carry over; a low-end outcome looks closer to his 2023 line. The projection of 190.3 points reflects a player whose floor and ceiling remain meaningfully far apart.
How to draft him
Jones is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around — he is available as a free agent in most draft contexts. At QB22 and #309 overall with a -77.1 draft value, he profiles as a late-round or post-draft addition rather than a planned roster target. His Week 13 bye is worth noting when constructing your quarterback depth. If you are building a two-QB roster or need a streaming option, Jones is a name to monitor, but the numbers do not support spending meaningful draft capital on him.
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Questions drafters ask
He completed 261 of 384 pass attempts for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdown passes, and 8 interceptions. He also rushed 45 times for 164 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 8 fumbles and 3 fumbles lost.
The projection is 190.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -77.1, placing him below replacement level at quarterback — QB22 and #309 overall in Tier 9.
Jones does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively available as a post-draft addition in most leagues.
His three-year averages (2023–2025) show 295 pass attempts, 2,026.7 passing yards, 9.7 passing touchdowns, 2.7 rushing touchdowns, and 211.7 rush yards per season. However, those averages mask wide year-to-year swings — his passing yards ranged from 909 to 3,101 across the same span.