#914 overall · KC · 71.5 projected half-PPR pts · -196.0 Draft Value
Justin Fields — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Fields is a Kansas City quarterback with a legitimate rushing floor. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 443 rush yards and 4.3 rush touchdowns per year, and his legs have kept him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the passing volume was limited. In 2023 he posted 657 rush yards and 4 rush touchdowns on 124 carries alongside 2,562 pass yards and 16 passing touchdowns — a stat line that showed what a full workload looks like for him. The rushing contribution is real and consistent across all three years on record.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -196.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB34 and #914 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. His bye week is Week 5.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 370 | 227 | 2562 | 16 | 9 | 124 | 657 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 239.2 |
| 2024 | 161 | 106 | 1106 | 5 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 120.1 |
| 2025 | 204 | 128 | 1259 | 7 | 1 | 71 | 383 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 133.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 245 | 153.7 | 1642.3 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 85.7 | 443 | 4.3 | 0.3 | — | — | — | 6.7 | — | — | 169.3 |
The range of outcomes
Fields' three-season averages tell a story of compressed volume: 245 pass attempts, 1,642.3 pass yards, and 9.3 passing touchdowns per year. The rushing numbers — 85.7 attempts, 443 yards, 4.3 touchdowns — have been the steadier element. Fumbles are a persistent drag; he has averaged 6.7 fumbles per season over the same span, losing 4, 1, and 3 in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively. The upside case requires a meaningful expansion of pass attempts beyond the 161–204 range of the last two seasons. The downside case is more of the same: limited passing volume, a handful of rushing scores, and fumble exposure that erodes the point total. The gap between those two outcomes is wide.
How to draft him
Fields is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. He ranks QB34 and #914 overall with a draft value of -196.0 — a below-replacement projection at the position. He is a late-round or undrafted option in most 12-team leagues, appropriate only as a deep handcuff or streaming candidate if you are carrying a starter who needs coverage on a bye or in a two-quarterback format where depth has genuine value.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 71.5 fantasy points with a draft value of -196.0 — below replacement level at quarterback. He ranks QB34 and #914 overall in Tier 9. In a standard single-QB league he is a depth or streaming option at best.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Fields averaged 85.7 rush attempts, 443 rush yards, and 4.3 rush touchdowns per year. His single-season high was 657 rush yards on 124 carries in 2023.
He has fumbled 10, 6, and 4 times in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, losing 4, 1, and 3 of those. The three-year average is 6.7 fumbles per season — a consistent negative in his scoring profile.
His three-year average is 245 pass attempts, 1,642.3 pass yards, and 9.3 passing touchdowns per season. His most recent two seasons came in at 161 attempts/1,106 yards/5 TDs in 2024 and 204 attempts/1,259 yards/7 TDs in 2025.