#911 overall · KC · 71.5 projected half-PPR pts · -188.4 Draft Value
Justin Fields — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Fields is a Kansas City quarterback with a legitimate dual-threat floor. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 85.7 rush attempts and 443 rush yards per year, and his 2023 season showed what a full workload looks like: 124 rush attempts, 657 rush yards, and 20 combined touchdowns. That rushing volume is the entire argument. In a half-PPR format, a quarterback who can contribute on the ground has a scoring path that a pure pocket passer does not. His 2023 also showed a capable arm: 370 pass attempts, 2,562 yards, and 16 passing touchdowns. The raw tools that produced that season are still on the roster.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That produces a draft value of -188.4, placing Fields at QB35 and #911 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where he sits in the depth chart conversation at Kansas City, not a verdict on his career. His bye week is Week 5.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 370 | 227 | 2562 | 16 | 9 | 124 | 657 | 4 | 10 | 239.2 |
| 2024 | 161 | 106 | 1106 | 5 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 5 | 6 | 120.1 |
| 2025 | 204 | 128 | 1259 | 7 | 1 | 71 | 383 | 4 | 4 | 133.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 245 | 153.7 | 1642.3 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 85.7 | 443 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 169.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of this profile. The median simulated season lands at 29.8 points. The 10th-percentile floor is 0.0 points, meaning a meaningful share of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The 25th percentile is 17.0 points. Move to the upside and the picture changes sharply: the 75th percentile is 91.8 points and the 90th percentile reaches 153.4 points. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is as large as it gets for a late-depth quarterback. The 2024 and 2025 seasons each came in well below his 2023 output across every major category, so the three-year averages of 1,642.3 passing yards, 9.3 passing touchdowns, and 4.3 rushing touchdowns per season reflect genuine volatility, not a stable baseline. Fumbles are a consistent concern: 10 in 2023, 6 in 2024, 4 in 2025, averaging 6.7 per year over the three-season window.
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our projection
How to draft him
Fields is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around; he is a free agent on draft day in most leagues. At QB35 and #911 overall, he belongs at the very back of a draft as a speculative handcuff or streaming option, not as a starter. The 90th-percentile outcome of 153.4 points gives him a ceiling worth a late flier if your roster construction allows it. Draft him only after your starting quarterback situation is fully secured.
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Questions drafters ask
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 153.4 half-PPR points. His 2023 season is the closest historical reference point: 2,562 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 657 rush yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns on 124 rush attempts.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is 17.0 points. His 2024 and 2025 seasons were both limited in volume, with 161 and 204 pass attempts respectively, and combined totals of 5 and 7 passing touchdowns in those years.
Fields does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available as a free pick at the end of any draft.
Yes. He has fumbled 10, 6, and 4 times over the past three seasons, for a three-year average of 6.7 fumbles per season. He has lost 4, 1, and 3 of those respectively, averaging 2.7 fumbles lost per year. In half-PPR formats, fumbles lost are a direct scoring penalty.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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