#221 overall · GB · 61.0 projected half-PPR pts · -54.7 Draft Value
Jonnu Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the anchor. Jonnu Smith caught 88 passes on 111 targets for 884 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, a genuine breakout that showed what a full workload looks like for him. The three-year averages back that up in part: 78.3 targets, 58.7 receptions, 562.7 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. He also added a rushing dimension in 2025, carrying 9 times for 70 yards and a touchdown. That dual-threat usage is a real trait, not a one-off. For a drafter willing to wait at tight end, Smith is a name with a legitimate peak-season ceiling on record.
What the model projects
The projection is 61.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Smith is ranked #232 overall and TE32, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -59.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season comes in at 62.3 points, close to the point estimate.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 70 | 50 | 582 | 3 | 1 | 99.2 |
| 2024 | 111 | 88 | 884 | 8 | 2 | 178.3 |
| 2025 | 54 | 38 | 222 | 2 | 1 | 66.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 78.3 | 58.7 | 562.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 115.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 18.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 36.4. The median is 62.3. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 86.3 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 118.7. That 118.7 ceiling is meaningful given what the 2024 stat line demonstrated is possible. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial, which means the season you get from Smith depends heavily on which version shows up.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Smith does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so there is no consistent draft-slot price to report. His rank is #232 overall and TE32 in Tier 9, with a negative draft value. He projects below replacement level at the position in this format. The realistic use case is a late-round or waiver-wire flier for a drafter who already has tight end covered and wants a high-variance upside add. His bye is Week 11, worth noting for roster planning. Do not reach for him expecting the 2024 ceiling; the projection and the floor both say the downside is real.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 61.0 half-PPR points and ranks him TE32, #232 overall, with a draft value of -59.0. That puts him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries real upside given his 2024 season (88 catches, 884 yards, 8 touchdowns), but the floor is low: the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 18.4 points. He is better suited as a backup or speculative add than a primary starter.
In 2024 Smith posted 88 receptions on 111 targets for 884 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. That is the high-water mark in the FACTS and aligns with the top-10-percent simulated outcome of 118.7 points. It is a real data point, but the three-year average receiving touchdown figure is 4.3 per season, which suggests 2024 was above his typical output.
Over the three seasons in the FACTS, he averages 4 rush attempts per season for 23 rushing yards. In 2025 specifically he carried 9 times for 70 yards and added a rushing touchdown. It is a modest but real part of his profile.
There is no market ADP available for Smith across public 2026 drafts, so no consistent pick price exists. His model rank is #232 overall and TE32. In practice he is a player to target only after your roster needs are otherwise addressed.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.