#245 overall · CHI · 107.1 projected half-PPR pts · -66.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 208.2
Cairo Santos — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cairo Santos has been Chicago's kicker for several seasons, and the three-year averages tell a consistent story: 27 field goals, 31.7 extra points, and 31 field goal attempts per season from 2023 through 2025. The 2023 campaign was his peak in that window, with 35 made field goals on 38 attempts, including 8 from 40-49 yards and 7 from 50-plus. His 2025 season added 39 extra points, the highest single-season total in his recent history, which reflects a Bears offense that was generating scoring opportunities. The miss rate has been manageable: a three-year average of 2.7 misses per season. For a drafter who wants a kicker with a multi-year track record in one place, Santos provides that continuity.
What the model projects
The projection is 107.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Santos ranks K19 at his position and #245 overall. His tier is Tier 9. His draft value is -66.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 123.7 points, which is above the point estimate; the two numbers differ, and both are reported here as given. His bye week is Week 10.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35 | 3 | 31 | 155.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 108.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | 4 | 39 | 128.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27 | 2.7 | 31.7 | 29.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for the position. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 15.5 points, a near-total collapse in production. The 25th percentile is 75.7 points, still a below-average fantasy season. The median sits at 123.7 points. Moving up, the 75th percentile reaches 137.5 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 163.3 points. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is roughly 148 points, underscoring how volatile a kicker's season-to-season outcomes can be even with a stable role. The 2024 season, where Santos made just 21 field goals on 25 attempts, illustrates the lower end of that range in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Santos at an average pick of 208.2, which works out to round 18, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-round commitment. His overall rank is #245 overall and his position rank is K19. A drafter targeting Santos should expect to spend a pick in the 18th round to secure him, assuming the market holds near its current average.
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Questions drafters ask
Across 2023-2025, he averaged 27 made field goals, 31.7 extra points, and 31 field goal attempts per season, with an average of 2.7 misses. His best single season in that window was 2023, when he made 35 of 38 attempts.
The projection is 107.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -66.0, placing him below replacement level at the kicker position, ranked K19 and #245 overall in Tier 9.
The simulated season band runs from 15.5 points at the 10th percentile to 163.3 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 123.7 points. That is a span of roughly 148 points, reflecting the high variance inherent to the kicker position.
The market average is 208.2, which translates to round 18, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is where drafters are currently spending picks to land him.
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Beyond the numbers
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