#224 overall · PHI · 71.1 projected half-PPR pts · -56.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 159.4
Tank Bigsby — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tank Bigsby is now on Philadelphia, and the 2024 season showed what he can do when given a real workload. That year he logged 168 rush attempts, 766 rush yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns, a clear step up from the 50 carries and 132 yards he managed in 2023. The three-year averages tell a similar story of a back who can contribute on the ground: 93.7 rush attempts, 418 rush yards, and 3.7 rushing touchdowns per season. The receiving side is thin, averaging 3.7 receptions and 30.7 receiving yards per season across the same window, but the rushing upside is real. His bye is Week 10, which is manageable for a late-roster add.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Bigsby at RB50 and #224 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -56.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is modest, and the rank reflects that plainly.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 50 | 132 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 24.3 |
| 2024 | 168 | 766 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 54 | 3 | 125.5 |
| 2025 | 63 | 356 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 32 | — | 52.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 93.7 | 418 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 30.7 | 1.3 | 68.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Bigsby's outlook. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 9.0 points. The 25th percentile is 29.0 points. The median simulated season is 63.9 points, slightly below the 71.1 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 105.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 150.6 points. That gap between the floor and the ceiling, from 9.0 to 150.6, is substantial. The downside is near-zero fantasy relevance; the upside is a back who could return genuine value if the role expands. His fumble history is worth noting: 3 fumbles in 2024 and 1 in each of 2023 and 2025, averaging 1.3 per season over three years.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Bigsby going at pick 159.4, which works out to the 14th round, 3rd pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across 2 platforms). The model has him at #224 overall. At that draft slot, he is a depth piece and a speculative add, not a building block. Target him only if you need a late-round handcuff or a high-variance flier with a ceiling worth chasing. His Week 10 bye is easy to plan around at this stage of a draft.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he carried the ball 168 times for 766 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, adding 7 receptions for 54 yards on 12 targets.
The projection is 71.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB50 and #224 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -56.7.
The band runs from 9.0 points at the 10th percentile to 150.6 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 63.9 points. The range is wide, reflecting a high-variance role.
Market ADP puts him at pick 159.4, or round 14, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. At that point in a draft he is a late-round depth selection.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →