#167 overall · NYG · 80.8 projected half-PPR pts · -31.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 132.8
Isaiah Likely — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Isaiah Likely arrives in New York with a three-year track record that shows a tight end who can find the end zone. He scored 5 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 6 in 2024, averaging 4 scores per season across the 2023–2025 window. His 2024 campaign was his most target-rich at 58 looks, and he turned those into 42 receptions for 477 yards. The touchdown production in particular is the thread worth pulling — a tight end who has demonstrated the ability to reach paydirt consistently is worth monitoring in the late rounds of any draft.
What the model projects
The projection for Likely is 80.8 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at -31.2, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE23 and #167 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Those numbers reflect a reduced role relative to his peak seasons — his 2025 line of 27 receptions, 307 yards, and 1 touchdown on 36 targets was a step back from the prior two years, and the projection carries that forward.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 30 | 411 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 86.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 42 | 477 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 102.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 27 | 307 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 48.2 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 44.7 | 33 | 398.3 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 80.3 |
The range of outcomes
Likely's three-year averages tell the story of the variance baked into his profile: 44.7 targets, 33 receptions, 398.3 yards, and 4 touchdowns per season. The touchdown column is the swing variable. In 2023 and 2024 he scored 5 and 6 times respectively; in 2025 he scored once. A season closer to his 2024 form would look very different from a repeat of 2025. The fumble history is a minor drag — he has lost 2 fumbles over the past two seasons. The upside case rests almost entirely on touchdown regression toward his earlier rates; the downside case is another low-volume, low-score campaign.
How to draft him
Market ADP for Likely is 132.8, which works out to pick 12.01 in a 12-team draft — the very first pick of the final round, based on a median across two platforms. Our rank is #167 overall (TE23, Tier 9). If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the 12th round. At that stage of a draft, roster construction is largely complete and you are filling out the back end of your bench. Likely is a late-round flier whose value is almost entirely contingent on touchdown volume returning to his 2023–2024 levels.
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Questions drafters ask
He scored 5 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 6 in 2024, and 1 in 2025, for a three-year average of 4 per season.
He is TE23 and #167 overall, sitting in Tier 9 with a projected 80.8 half-PPR points and a draft value of -31.2.
His market ADP is 132.8 — pick 12.01 in a 12-team draft — based on a median across two platforms. That is the first pick of the 12th round.
His best recent season was 2024: 58 targets, 42 receptions, 477 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. A return toward that target and touchdown volume represents the ceiling of his 2026 range.