#157 overall · NYG · 87.9 projected half-PPR pts · -31.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 125.1
Isaiah Likely — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Isaiah Likely arrives in New York with three seasons of NFL production on the ledger. His best year came in 2024: 58 targets, 42 receptions, 477 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 4 receiving touchdowns per season on roughly 44.7 targets, a rate that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the yardage is modest. The 2025 season was quieter, 36 targets, 27 catches, 307 yards, and 1 touchdown, but the underlying target share across all three years shows a player who has consistently been involved in passing games. For a drafter willing to wait at tight end, the touchdown upside is the hook.
What the model projects
The projection is 87.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Likely at #157 overall and TE18, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 87.9 sits below the median simulated season of 95.7, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40 | 30 | 411 | 5 | — | 86.1 |
| 2024 | 58 | 42 | 477 | 6 | 1 | 102.7 |
| 2025 | 36 | 27 | 307 | 1 | 2 | 48.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 44.7 | 33 | 398.3 | 4 | 1 | 80.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of outcomes land at 36.4 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile is 63.1 points, still a difficult number to build around. The median outcome is 95.7 points. Things improve meaningfully toward the upside: the 75th percentile reaches 118.6 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 147.5 points. That upper band is where the 2024 version of Likely lives. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial, which means roster decisions around him carry real consequence. A drafter who lands the 90th-percentile version gets a productive streamer or a weekly starter; the 10th-percentile version is a roster spot that contributes almost nothing.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 125.1, which works out to pick 11.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #157 overall and TE18. In practice, a drafter targeting Likely should expect to spend a pick in the 11th round. At that stage of a draft, tight end depth is the primary use case. His bye falls in Week 8, so plan a streaming option for that week. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a TE2 or a high-upside streamer rather than a foundational piece of a roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 87.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 95.7 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated outcomes reach 147.5 points.
He is TE18 by draft value in a 12-team half-PPR format, ranked #157 overall, and placed in Tier 9.
Market ADP is 125.1, which translates to pick 11.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan to spend a pick in the 11th round if you want him.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 4 receiving touchdowns per year. His single-season highs were 6 touchdowns in 2024 and 5 in 2023; he recorded 1 in 2025.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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