#231 overall · CLE · 68.4 projected half-PPR pts · -58.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 177.2
Dylan Sampson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dylan Sampson is an RB on the Cleveland roster with a real receiving profile to go alongside his rushing work. In 2025, he logged 65 rush attempts for 175 yards and caught 33 of 40 targets for 271 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That catch rate on 40 targets is a legitimate pass-game footprint for a back, and it is the entire three-year statistical record, meaning every touch he has ever taken at this level is already in those numbers. The bye is Week 11, which is a manageable scheduling note for roster construction.
What the model projects
The projection is 68.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Sampson at RB52 and #231 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -58.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 60.0 points, a few ticks below the point estimate.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | 175 | 40 | 33 | 271 | 2 | 1 | 71.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 65 | 175 | 40 | 33 | 271 | 2 | 1 | 73.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 7.9 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 26.8. The median is 60.0. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 101.9 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 145.7. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial. A drafter targeting Sampson is accepting a high probability of a minimal return in exchange for a real, if unlikely, ceiling.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Sampson going at pick 177.2, which works out to round 15, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #231 overall. At his ADP, he is a late-round flier. Given the negative draft value and the wide outcome band skewed heavily toward the floor, he fits best as a depth stash rather than a meaningful roster anchor. If you are targeting him, round 15 is when the market says you need to spend the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
The 2025 numbers show a genuine receiving role: 40 targets, 33 receptions, and 271 receiving yards alongside 65 rush attempts and 175 rush yards. That is his entire NFL statistical record, and it includes a meaningful pass-game workload.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 145.7 half-PPR points. That is the top-10% outcome. The 75th percentile is 101.9 points. Both represent meaningful fantasy contributions, but the median outcome is 60.0 points, so the upside is real and the base case is modest.
The projection puts him at RB52 with a draft value of -58.8, which is below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He sits in Tier 9 at #231 overall.
Market ADP has him at pick 177.2, or round 15, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the current market price for securing him on your roster.
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Beyond the numbers
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