#284 overall · LAC · 51.6 projected half-PPR pts · -76.6 Draft Value
Kimani Vidal — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kimani Vidal's 2025 season was a meaningful step forward. He carried the ball 155 times for 643 rushing yards, added 16 receptions on 22 targets for 136 receiving yards, and scored four total touchdowns. That is a legitimate workload for a back who had only 43 rush attempts in 2024. The three-year averages tell a similar story of gradual accumulation: 99 rush attempts, 399 rushing yards, and 10.5 receptions per season. He is a real NFL running back with a recent season of genuine volume behind him, and that is the foundation any late-round dart throw needs.
What the model projects
The projection is 51.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Vidal at RB60 and #284 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -76.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the model lands on a back whose three-year per-season averages sit at 99 rush attempts and 399 rushing yards. The 2025 breakout is in the data; the projection is what it is.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43 | 155 | — | 9 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 30.2 |
| 2025 | 155 | 643 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 136 | 1 | 1 | 109.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 99 | 399 | 1.5 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 70.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining characteristic of Vidal's profile. The median simulated season lands at 36.3 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 1.5 points, and the 25th percentile is only 13.4. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 77.1 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 114.9. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial. A bad season is very bad; a good season crosses into genuinely useful fantasy territory. The variance here is not subtle.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Vidal does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce one. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. At RB60 and #284 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the very back end of a roster, taken only after your core is fully built. His bye is Week 7. The upside band at the 90th percentile is real enough to justify a final-round flier if you need a handcuff or a high-variance lottery ticket at running back.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 155 times for 643 rushing yards and caught 16 passes on 22 targets for 136 receiving yards. He scored three rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown, with one fumble on the season.
The projection is 51.6 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB60 and #284 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -76.6, placing him below replacement level at the position.
The band runs from 1.5 points at the 10th percentile to 114.9 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 36.3 points. The floor is very low, but the top 10 percent of simulated seasons crosses into genuinely useful fantasy production.
Vidal has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so he is undrafted in most leagues. He is a late-roster addition only, taken after your core is set, as a high-variance depth piece at running back.
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Beyond the numbers
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