#197 overall · MIA · 72.4 projected half-PPR pts · -47.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 206.1
Greg Dulcich — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Greg Dulcich's 2025 season was the first time he looked like a real fantasy asset. He caught 26 of 33 targets for 335 receiving yards and a touchdown, numbers that dwarf his 2023 and 2024 combined output. The three-year averages tell the story of a player who spent most of his career on the margins: 11.3 receptions, 16.3 targets, and 129.3 receiving yards per season. But 2025 broke that pattern sharply. For a drafter willing to roster a late-round tight end with a recent breakout on his ledger, Dulcich offers a data point worth noting.
What the model projects
The projection is 72.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Dulcich at #197 overall and TE25, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -47.4, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is modest, and the draft value reflects that plainly.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4 | 3 | 25 | — | — | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | 5 | 28 | — | — | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | 26 | 335 | 1 | 1 | 49.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 16.3 | 11.3 | 129.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 20.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 26.0 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile is 47.8 points. The median simulated season comes in at 76.5 points, slightly above the 72.4 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 100.0 points, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 130.8 points. That upper band represents a meaningful jump from the projection, but the downside is steep. The 2025 season showed a target share that could support a useful role; the 2023 and 2024 seasons showed how quickly that can disappear. Both realities live inside this band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 206.1, which works out to pick 18.02 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a pick deep enough that roster cost is minimal. Dulcich is a late-round flier at a position where late-round production is hard to find. His bye falls in Week 6, worth noting when building a roster around him. At TE25 with a negative draft value, he is a depth option, not a foundation piece.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 72.4 points and his draft value is -47.4, placing him below replacement level at TE in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks TE25 and #197 overall in Tier 9. The numbers make him a depth option rather than a starter, but his 2025 season (26 receptions, 33 targets, 335 yards, 1 TD) is the strongest single-season line of his career.
In 2023 he caught 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards. In 2024 he caught 5 of 12 targets for 28 yards. In 2025 he caught 26 of 33 targets for 335 yards and a touchdown, also losing a fumble. The three-year per-season averages are 11.3 receptions, 16.3 targets, and 129.3 receiving yards, so 2025 was a significant outlier above his prior baseline.
Market ADP is 206.1, which translates to pick 18.02 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a Round 18 pick, deep enough that the roster cost is low.
The 90th-percentile simulated season is 130.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 100.0 points. Both represent meaningful production for a late-round tight end, though the 10th-percentile outcome of 26.0 points shows how wide the downside is.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →