#200 overall · MIA · 81.5 projected half-PPR pts · -47.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 352.3
Theo Wease — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Theo Wease is a wide receiver on the Miami roster with a bye in Week 6. His entire three-year statistical record is contained in 2025: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 139 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. That is a thin foundation, and anyone drafting him knows it. The case rests entirely on upside and roster speculation, not on a track record of volume. If you are deep into a snake draft and need a flier at receiver, Wease is a name on the Miami depth chart with at least one touchdown on his ledger.
What the model projects
The projection is 81.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -47.6, placing him at WR74 and #200 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect the statistical record above: a single season of 10 targets and 6 catches is the entire input history.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10 | 6 | 139 | 1 | 22.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 10 | 6 | 139 | 1 | 22.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide relative to the projection, which itself signals high variance. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 12.0 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The median simulated season is 61.7 points, below the 81.5 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 98.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 151.0 points. That p90 outcome is the only scenario where Wease becomes a meaningful fantasy asset. The gap between the p10 floor of 12.0 and the p90 ceiling of 151.0 is among the widest outcome spreads a drafter will encounter, reflecting how little the historical record constrains the projection.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 352.3, which works out to pick 30.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is well beyond the standard 15-round snake draft. In practice, Wease is not being selected in most drafts at all. If your league runs an extended format with 30 or more rounds, he becomes available at that point. In a standard-length draft, he is a waiver-wire name, not a pick you need to budget for. His rank of #200 overall and WR74 reflect his standing in the value-based rankings regardless of draft format.
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Questions drafters ask
His entire three-year aggregate matches his 2025 season exactly: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 139 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. There is no additional production from 2023 or 2024 in the record.
The projection is 81.5 half-PPR points. His draft value is -47.6, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR74 and #200 overall in Tier 9.
His market ADP is 352.3, which translates to pick 30.04 in a 12-team draft. That is beyond the range of a standard snake draft, so in most league formats he will never be drafted and would be available on the waiver wire instead.
The p90 outcome, meaning the top 10% of simulated seasons, is 151.0 half-PPR points. The p75 outcome is 98.2 points. Both represent significant upside relative to the 81.5 point projection, but the p10 floor of 12.0 points shows how frequently the low-end outcome is also on the table.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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