#207 overall · HOU · 81.2 projected half-PPR pts · -47.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 140.9
Woody Marks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Woody Marks put together a legitimate workload in 2025, his only season of NFL production on record. He carried the ball 196 times for 703 rushing yards and added 24 receptions on 36 targets for 208 receiving yards, finishing with 5 total touchdowns. That is a back who touched the ball consistently and contributed in both phases of the offense. The receiving work is the most notable piece: 36 targets in a season is a real role in the passing game, not a token one, and it gives him a floor that pure between-the-tackles backs do not have. For a drafter hunting late-round volume at a thin position, that dual-threat profile is the starting point for any argument in his favor.
What the model projects
The projection for Marks is 81.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -47.3, placing him RB44 and #207 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a back who projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 78.1 points, close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around that baseline.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 196 | 703 | 2 | 36 | 24 | 208 | 3 | 1 | 133.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 196 | 703 | 2 | 36 | 24 | 208 | 3 | 1 | 133.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Marks is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 12.8 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile comes in at 37.0 points, still well below useful weekly production. The median sits at 78.1, the 75th percentile reaches 120.8, and the top 10% of simulated seasons climbs to 169.1 points. That upper end represents a genuinely productive fantasy season. The spread from p10 to p90 covers more than 156 points, which tells you this projection carries real variance. The downside is severe; the upside is meaningful. Drafters who land him in a good scenario get a contributor; those who land in a bad one get almost nothing.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP on Marks is 140.9, which works out to pick 12.09 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #207 overall and RB44. If you want him, the market is currently taking him in the 12th round. At that stage of a draft, roster construction is largely complete and you are filling out the back end of your bench. His bye falls in Week 8, worth noting when setting your roster schedule. Given the wide outcome band, he profiles as a late-round flier rather than a foundational piece, and the 12th-round draft slot reflects roughly where that kind of gamble belongs in a snake draft.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 196 times for 703 rushing yards and caught 24 passes on 36 targets for 208 receiving yards, scoring 2 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns, with 1 fumble.
The projection is 81.2 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 78.1 points. His draft value is -47.3, ranking him RB44 and #207 overall in Tier 9.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finishes at just 12.8 points, and the 25th percentile is 37.0. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 120.8 points and the top 10% hits 169.1, so the range of outcomes is very wide.
His market ADP is 140.9, which translates to pick 12.09 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That puts him firmly in late-round territory.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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