Ryan Flournoy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Ryan Flournoy's 2025 season is the foundation of whatever case exists here. He caught 40 of 56 targets for 475 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, adding 4 rush attempts for 25 yards — a meaningful step up from his 2024 line of 10 receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards. The three-year averages (25 receptions, 288.5 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns, 35 targets per season) reflect how limited his role was before 2025, which makes the jump in volume last year the central data point. A 71.4% catch rate on 56 targets with 4 scores is a real season. For a drafter willing to reach deep into a roster, that 2025 breakout is the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 82.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands him at #197 overall and WR73, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -47.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 62.3 points — below the point estimate of 82.2, signaling that the distribution is right-skewed. His bye week is 14.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 12.3 points (p10), and the 25th percentile sits at 31.4 points (p25) — floors that reflect genuine role uncertainty. The median season is 62.3 points (p50). Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 98.9 points (p75), and a top-10% season (p90) produces 152.0 points. That p90 number is the ceiling a drafter is buying: a scenario where Flournoy's 2025 target share holds or grows and the touchdowns stay. The distance between p10 and p90 — 12.3 to 152.0 — is one of the wider spreads you'll find at this tier, which is the honest summary of his profile.

How to draft him

The market ADP is 197.1, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 17.05 in a 12-team draft — a late-round flier territory. That is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. At that draft slot, the cost is low and the roster spot is essentially free. He is a depth add or a late-round stash on the strength of his 2025 production, with the understanding that the projection sits below replacement level and the floor is very low. Draft him only if your roster construction can absorb a near-zero outcome at that position.

The projection of 82.2 points and a draft value of -47.8 place him below replacement level at WR (WR73, #197 overall, Tier 9). The market is drafting him at pick 197.1 — round 17 in a 12-team draft — so the cost is minimal. Whether that roster spot is worth it depends on your depth needs; the numbers say he projects below the replacement bar, but the late-round price reflects that.

He caught 40 of 56 targets for 475 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, and added 4 rush attempts for 25 yards. That was a significant increase from his 2024 season, when he had 10 receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards with no touchdowns.

The p90 outcome — the top 10% of simulated seasons — is 152.0 half-PPR points. His p75 outcome is 98.9 points. Those are the upper end of the band the model produces for him.

The p10 outcome is 12.3 points for the season, and the p25 sits at 31.4 points. Those are the bottom 10% and bottom 25% of simulated seasons, respectively, and they reflect genuine downside risk in his role.