#166 overall · HOU · 85.1 projected half-PPR pts · -34.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 192.3
Dalton Schultz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dalton Schultz has been a consistent volume presence at tight end for three straight seasons. His 2025 campaign was his best of the three: 106 targets, 82 receptions, and 777 receiving yards, all career highs in this window. Over the 2023-2025 span he averaged 93 targets and 64.7 receptions per season, which is a reliable floor of involvement. The target volume alone keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats, and his 2025 reception total shows he can be a genuine week-to-week contributor when the opportunities are there.
What the model projects
The projection is 85.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below the 2025 actual output, and it places Schultz at TE21 and #166 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -34.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 92.2 points, slightly above the point estimate. Note his bye week is Week 8.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 88 | 59 | 635 | 5 | 1 | 121.0 |
| 2024 | 85 | 53 | 532 | 2 | — | 91.7 |
| 2025 | 106 | 82 | 777 | 3 | 1 | 136.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 93 | 64.7 | 648 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 117.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 34.5 points, a near-zero-value result. The 25th percentile is 60.3 points, still a modest return. The median sits at 92.2 points. A strong season lands at 115.3 points (75th percentile), and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 144.5 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a 144.5-point season would represent genuine TE1 production. The floor, however, is real. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans 110 points, so the range of what Schultz can deliver in any given season is substantial.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Schultz going at pick 192.3, which works out to round 16, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is deep in the draft. His rank of #166 overall and TE21 reflect a projection below replacement level, so the case for spending a pick on him rests entirely on the upside in that outcome band and the target volume his recent history shows. If you are building a late-round dart-throw at tight end, this is the range where you would have to spend to get him.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 106 targets, 82 receptions, 777 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns in 2025, his strongest statistical season of the 2023-2025 window.
The projection is 85.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His three-year averages (2023-2025) are 93 targets, 64.7 receptions, 648 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season, so the projection reflects a more conservative outlook than his recent volume suggests.
Schultz is ranked TE21 and #166 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -34.9, which means his projection falls below the replacement-level baseline for tight ends in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP puts him at pick 192.3, or round 16, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round, low-cost commitment.
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Beyond the numbers
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