#138 overall · HOU · 91.8 projected half-PPR pts · -20.2 Draft Value
Dalton Schultz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dalton Schultz has been a consistent presence in the Houston passing game across three seasons. In 2025 he posted career-best numbers in this stretch — 106 targets, 82 receptions, and 777 receiving yards — showing that his role in the offense is real and durable. Over the three-year window from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 93 targets, 64.7 receptions, 648 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That target volume is the foundation of his fantasy case: a tight end who sees 85-plus looks in a season has a floor that many at the position cannot claim. The 2025 season demonstrated he can push well above his recent averages when the opportunity is there.
What the model projects
The projection for Schultz is 91.8 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. He ranks #138 overall and TE15 by draft value. His draft value sits at -20.2, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the tight end position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He lands in Tier 9 on the overall board. His bye week is Week 8.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 59 | 635 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 53 | 532 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 91.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 82 | 777 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 93 | 64.7 | 648 | 3.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 117.0 |
The range of outcomes
Schultz's recent history illustrates the variance that defines his profile. Touchdown production has swung from five in 2023, to two in 2024, to three in 2025 — a range that meaningfully shifts his fantasy ceiling in any given season. Receiving yards have ranged from 532 (2024) to 777 (2025) over the same window. The 2024 season shows what the floor looks like: 85 targets, 53 receptions, 532 yards, and two scores. The 2025 season shows the upside: 106 targets, 82 catches, 777 yards, and three touchdowns. The gap between those two outcomes is substantial, and the projection of 91.8 points sits in the middle of that historical band.
How to draft him
Schultz does not have a consistent market ADP across platforms at this time, so there is no reliable draft-slot signal to report. What the numbers do say is that at TE15 with a draft value of -20.2, he projects below replacement level at the position. He is a late-round or streaming consideration — a drafter who already has a higher-ranked tight end and wants a handcuff or a speculative upside play based on his 2025 target share. His Week 8 bye is worth noting when constructing a roster. Do not reach for him expecting the 2025 ceiling; the projection of 91.8 points reflects the full range of his recent history.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 Schultz posted 106 targets, 82 receptions, 777 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns — his best marks in the three-year window. The projection for 2026 is 91.8 half-PPR points, which sits below that 2025 output, consistent with his three-year average of 648 receiving yards and 3.3 touchdowns per season.
His draft value is -20.2, placing him below replacement level at tight end on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He ranks TE15 and #138 overall. That makes him a late-roster or streaming option rather than a core starter — useful as depth behind a higher-ranked tight end, but not a player to prioritize early.
His lowest output in the 2023–2025 window was 2024: 85 targets, 53 receptions, 532 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns. That is the historical floor. His three-year averages of 93 targets and 64.7 receptions suggest the floor is not zero involvement, but touchdown variance (2 to 5 over three seasons) can significantly alter the final point total.
Schultz's bye week is Week 8. Factor that into roster construction if you are relying on him as a starter or primary backup at tight end.