#164 overall · MIN · 85.8 projected half-PPR pts · -33.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 182.0
T.J. Hockenson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2023 season is the anchor. Hockenson caught 95 of 127 targets for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns that year, a workload that established him as a legitimate featured tight end. That season-long volume is real, and it sits in the recent record. For a drafter willing to bet on a return toward that usage, the upside is documented rather than theoretical. He is on MIN with a bye in Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.
What the model projects
The projection is 85.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below the median simulated outcome of 93.1 points, reflecting the shape of the distribution. His draft value is -33.9, placing him #164 overall and TE21 in Tier 9. The three-year averages tell the story behind those numbers: 62.3 receptions, 617.7 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season across 2023 through 2025. The 2023 peak pulls those averages up; the 2024 and 2025 lines, at 41 and 51 receptions respectively, pull them back down.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 127 | 95 | 960 | 5 | 1 | 171.5 |
| 2024 | 62 | 41 | 455 | — | — | 66.0 |
| 2025 | 66 | 51 | 438 | 3 | — | 87.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 85 | 62.3 | 617.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 109.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 35.0 points. The 25th percentile is 61.0 points. The median is 93.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 116.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 145.3 points. That spread from 35.0 to 145.3 is substantial, and it captures the core tension here: a floor that is genuinely low and a ceiling that would make him a weekly starter. The 2024 and 2025 seasons, each with targets in the low-to-mid 60s, anchor the downside scenarios. The 2023 season anchors the upside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Hockenson at pick 182.0 on average, which works out to round 16, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is late-draft territory. He is ranked #164 overall and TE21. At that draft slot, the cost is low and the ask is simply that he recaptures something closer to his 2023 form. The wide outcome band means the result could land anywhere from a near-empty stat line to a genuine contributor. Drafters who want a late-round tight end with a documented high-end season on record will find him in the final rounds.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he caught 95 of 127 targets for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns. In 2024 he had 41 receptions on 62 targets for 455 yards. In 2025 he had 51 receptions on 66 targets for 438 yards and 3 touchdowns. The three-year averages come out to 62.3 receptions, 85 targets, 617.7 yards, and 2.7 touchdowns per season.
The projection is 85.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #164 overall and TE21, placed in Tier 9, with a draft value of -33.9.
The simulated outcome band runs from 35.0 points at the 10th percentile to 145.3 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 93.1 points. The floor is real: 25 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 61.0 points.
The market ADP is 182.0, which is round 16, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from 2 platforms. He is available in the final rounds of most drafts at current market prices.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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