#169 overall · MIN · 80.5 projected half-PPR pts · -31.5 Draft Value
T.J. Hockenson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2023 season is the reason Hockenson still gets drafted at all. That year he posted 127 targets, 95 receptions, 960 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns — a genuine TE1 workload. That production is real, it happened, and it sets a ceiling that most tight ends never approach. If anything close to that version shows up in 2026, the drafter who rostered him wins the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 80.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at TE24 and #169 overall, placing Hockenson in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. The numbers reflect a player whose recent seasons — 62 targets and 41 catches for 455 yards with zero touchdowns in 2024, then 66 targets, 51 catches, 438 yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2025 — look nothing like 2023. Over the three-year window, his averages settle at 85 targets, 62.3 receptions, 617.7 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 95 | 960 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 171.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 41 | 455 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 66.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 51 | 438 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 87.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | — | — | 85 | 62.3 | 617.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | — | — | 109.1 |
The range of outcomes
Hockenson's outcome band is wide by design. The three-year history contains one elite season and two sharply reduced ones, and that variance flows directly into the simulated range. A bad season (p10) lands well short of the 80.5 projection; a typical season (p50) tracks near it; a strong season (p90) pushes meaningfully higher. The 2023 line — 960 yards, 5 TDs — is the data point that keeps the upside tail alive. The 2024 and 2025 lines — zero touchdowns in one, three in the other, sub-500 yards in both — define the floor. Both ends of that range are grounded in games he actually played.
How to draft him
Hockenson does not have a consistent market ADP across platforms, so there is no established draft-slot price to report. At TE24 and #169 overall in Tier 9, the model sees him as a below-replacement tight end at his current projection. He is a late-round or undrafted flier whose value is almost entirely contingent on a return to 2023-level usage. Draft him only if you are comfortable holding a speculative TE spot and have already secured your primary tight end. His bye is Week 6 — plan accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
At his current projection of 80.5 points, he ranks TE24 and #169 overall with a draft value of -31.5 — below replacement level at the position. He is a speculative add, not a reliable starter, unless his target share rebounds toward the 127-target, 95-catch 2023 season.
In 2024 he drew 62 targets, caught 41 passes for 455 yards, and scored zero touchdowns. In 2025 he saw 66 targets, caught 51 passes for 438 yards, and scored 3 touchdowns. Both seasons are a significant step back from his 2023 line of 127 targets, 95 receptions, 960 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Hockenson does not have a consistent ADP across platforms right now, so there is no established market price. He is effectively undrafted in most public leagues at this time.
The 2023 season is the data point: 127 targets, 95 receptions, 960 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That is the high end of his outcome band and the reason the p90 simulated season runs well above the 80.5 projection.