#104 overall · PHI · 108.8 projected half-PPR pts · -11.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 113.2
Dallas Goedert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dallas Goedert has posted back-to-back seasons of 59-plus receptions and 590-plus receiving yards, and his 2025 campaign added 11 receiving touchdowns to that volume floor. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 72.3 targets, 53.7 receptions, 559.7 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per year. The touchdown spike in 2025 is the headline, but the underlying target and reception averages show a player who has been consistently involved in the Philadelphia passing game across multiple seasons. That combination of reliable volume and touchdown upside is the core of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 108.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at TE10 by position rank and #104 overall. His draft value is -11.7, placing him in Tier 9. The projection trails the 2025 actual output, which reflects the three-year average context: the 5.3 touchdown mean across 2023-2025 sits well below the 11 he posted in 2025 alone, and the 2024 season showed a compressed target share of just 52. The projection lands between those poles.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 83 | 59 | 592 | 3 | — | 106.8 |
| 2024 | 52 | 42 | 496 | 2 | 2 | 82.6 |
| 2025 | 82 | 60 | 591 | 11 | — | 155.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 72.3 | 53.7 | 559.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 114.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10 percent of outcomes lands at 53.6 points, a figure consistent with a season closer to his 2024 production. The 25th percentile is 83.9 points and the median simulated season is 119.3 points, slightly above the point estimate of 108.8. The 75th percentile reaches 141.7 points and the top 10 percent of outcomes climbs to 169.2 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 115.6 points, which is a substantial spread. A drafter buying Goedert is accepting real downside risk in exchange for access to a ceiling that approaches elite tight end production.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 113.2, which works out to pick 10.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 10, so plan your roster depth accordingly. At TE10 with a negative draft value, he is a back-end starter at the position rather than a foundational pick. If you are building toward him, the tenth round is where the market is currently pricing the decision.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 60 passes on 82 targets for 591 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns in 2025.
Across 2023-2025 he averaged 72.3 targets, 53.7 receptions, and 559.7 receiving yards per season. The 2024 season was the outlier on volume, with only 52 targets and 42 receptions.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 53.6 half-PPR points, which represents a low-end season closer to his 2024 production than his 2023 or 2025 lines.
Market ADP is 113.2, which translates to pick 10.05 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the average pick being spent on him across two platforms right now.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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