#145 overall · PHI · 89.3 projected half-PPR pts · -22.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 113.5
Dallas Goedert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Goedert's 2025 season stands out in his recent history: 60 receptions on 82 targets for 591 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown total is the clearest argument for him — it shows what the ceiling looks like when the red-zone work flows his way. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 72.3 targets, 53.7 receptions, 559.7 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per year. The target and reception averages point to a consistent role in Philadelphia's offense. If the touchdown rate from 2025 holds anywhere near that level, the fantasy production follows.
What the model projects
The projection is 89.3 half-PPR fantasy points. Against a 12-team half-PPR replacement baseline, that produces a Draft Value of -22.7, placing Goedert at TE17 and #145 overall. He sits in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a stat line that, in recent history, has ranged from 42 receptions and 2 touchdowns (2024) to 60 receptions and 11 touchdowns (2025) — a wide band of actual outcomes that the single point estimate sits in the middle of.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 59 | 592 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 106.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 42 | 496 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 82.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 60 | 591 | 11 | — | 0 | 0 | 155.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 0.3 | — | 72.3 | 53.7 | 559.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 114.7 |
The range of outcomes
The historical record makes the variance plain. In 2023: 59 receptions, 592 yards, 3 touchdowns. In 2024: 42 receptions, 496 yards, 2 touchdowns. In 2025: 60 receptions, 591 yards, 11 touchdowns. The yardage and reception floors are relatively stable — he has not fallen below 42 catches or 496 yards in any of the three seasons. The touchdowns are the wild card. The gap between 2 and 11 receiving touchdowns in back-to-back seasons defines the true range of outcomes here. A season closer to the 2024 floor is a streaming-level result; a season closer to the 2025 peak is a top-end TE finish.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Goedert going at pick 113.5 — round 10, pick 5 in a 12-team draft (median across two platforms). Our board has him at #145 overall, TE17, Tier 9. If you want him, the market is pricing him off the board in round 10. His bye is Week 10, which is worth noting for roster planning. Given his Draft Value of -22.7, he projects below replacement level at the position — factor that into how much draft capital you are willing to commit and whether you plan to carry a second tight end.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 60 receptions on 82 targets for 591 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns in 2025.
Over 2023–2025 he averaged 72.3 targets and 53.7 receptions per season. His single-season target totals were 83 (2023), 52 (2024), and 82 (2025).
The projection is 89.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him TE17 and #145 overall, with a Draft Value of -22.7, placing him in Tier 9.
Market ADP puts him at pick 113.5 — round 10, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.