#103 overall · TB · 117.6 projected half-PPR pts · -11.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 85.3
Chris Godwin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2023 season is the clearest argument for Godwin. He hauled in 83 receptions on 130 targets for 1,024 receiving yards that year, adding a rushing touchdown and two receiving scores. That target share and yardage total show what a full, healthy workload looks like for him in Tampa Bay's offense. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 still reflect a receiver who sees 81 targets, 55.3 receptions, and 653.3 receiving yards per season with 3 receiving touchdowns, a profile that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats. The 2024 season added five receiving touchdowns in a reduced sample, a reminder that the scoring upside is real when he is on the field.
What the model projects
The projection is 117.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR45 and #103 overall, placing Godwin in Tier 9. His draft value is -11.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 117.6 is close to the median simulated season of 113.3, so the projection and the typical outcome are roughly aligned.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 130 | 83 | 1024 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 | — | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 62 | 50 | 576 | 5 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 112.8 |
| 2025 | 51 | 33 | 360 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 64.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 81 | 55.3 | 653.3 | 3 | 1.7 | 13.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 114.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Godwin's profile this year. A bad season, bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes, lands at 43.7 points. A typical season sits at 113.3. A strong season, top 25 percent, reaches 148.5, and a great season, top 10 percent, climbs to 191.1 points. The distance from the floor to the ceiling, 43.7 to 191.1, is substantial. Drafters are buying a player whose upside is a legitimate WR2 finish but whose downside is near-zero fantasy value. The 2024 line of 576 yards and 62 targets and the 2025 line of 360 yards and 51 targets illustrate that the low end of the band is not hypothetical.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Godwin going at pick 85.3, which translates to the 8th round, 1st pick in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #103 overall. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the eighth round. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or a high-variance flier rather than a foundational starter. His bye is Week 10, worth noting when constructing a roster around him.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 117.6 half-PPR points, with a median simulated season of 113.3. He ranks WR45 and #103 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -11.1, which is below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Very wide. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 43.7 points; the top 10 percent reaches 191.1. That 147-point spread reflects genuine season-to-season variance. His last two seasons, 576 yards in 2024 and 360 yards in 2025, show the floor is real, while his 2023 line of 1,024 yards and 130 targets shows the ceiling is too.
Market ADP puts him at pick 85.3, or round 8, pick 1 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the current market price if you want to secure him.
Targets have declined each of the last three seasons: 130 in 2023, 62 in 2024, and 51 in 2025. The three-year average is 81 targets per season, pulled up by that 2023 peak. The trend line is a key factor in understanding why the floor of the outcome band sits as low as it does.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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