#98 overall · TB · 115.7 projected half-PPR pts · -6.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 90.9
Chris Godwin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chris Godwin is a proven volume receiver in Tampa Bay's passing game. In 2023 he hauled in 83 receptions on 130 targets for 1,024 receiving yards, adding a rushing touchdown for good measure. That kind of target share establishes him as a legitimate option in the Buccaneers' offense when he is on the field. His 2024 line — 50 catches, 576 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns on 62 targets — showed he can still find the end zone at a useful clip even in a reduced role. The touchdown production across both of those seasons is real, and it keeps his floor from collapsing entirely. For a drafter willing to accept variance, Godwin's track record of target volume and red-zone involvement is the foundation of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 115.7 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That number places Godwin at #98 overall and WR45, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value is -6.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages across 2023–2025 show 81 targets, 55.3 receptions, 653.3 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season. His 2025 line was 51 targets, 33 receptions, 360 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Those are the numbers on the table heading into 2026.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 130 | 83 | 1024 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 50 | 576 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 112.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 33 | 360 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 64.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1.7 | 13.3 | 0.3 | 81 | 55.3 | 653.3 | 3 | 0.3 | — | — | 114.1 |
The range of outcomes
Godwin's recent season-to-season variance is wide. In 2023 he posted 130 targets and 1,024 receiving yards. In 2024 that fell to 62 targets and 576 yards. In 2025 it fell further to 51 targets, 33 receptions, and 360 yards. The gap between his best recent season and his most recent one is substantial. A drafter buying Godwin is essentially betting on which version shows up — the 2023 target hog or the 2025 limited contributor. The projection at 115.7 points and a negative draft value of -6.8 reflects a board position where the downside is real and the upside requires a meaningful step forward from 2025's output.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Godwin at pick 90.9 on average — that is round 8, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our ranking has him at #98 overall and WR45 in Tier 9. His bye week is 10. With a draft value of -6.8, Godwin projects below replacement level, so the drafter's calculus is straightforward: if you want him, round 8 is when you would need to spend the pick. Given his position on the board, he is best treated as a late-round flier rather than a building block, and only in a roster construction that can absorb the downside his recent target trends represent.
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Questions drafters ask
He saw 130 targets in 2023, 62 in 2024, and 51 in 2025 — a sharp downward trend over the three-year span, with a three-year average of 81 targets per season.
The projection is 115.7 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him #98 overall and WR45, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -6.8.
Based on a median across two platforms, his market ADP is 90.9 — round 8, pick 7 in a 12-team draft.
He scored 2 receiving touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown in 2023, 5 receiving touchdowns in 2024, and 2 receiving touchdowns in 2025 — a three-year average of 3 receiving touchdowns per season.