Jordan Love — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Jordan Love has three seasons of starting experience in Green Bay, and the three-year averages tell a coherent story: 481 pass attempts, 3,643 pass yards, 26.7 passing touchdowns, and 176.3 rush yards per season. His 2023 campaign was the high-water mark, with 4,159 pass yards, 32 passing touchdowns, and 50 rush attempts for 247 yards. The rushing dimension matters. Over the three-year window he has averaged 40.7 rush attempts and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per season, giving him a floor that a pure pocket passer does not have. His 2025 interception total dropped to 6 from 11 in each of the two prior seasons, the cleanest ball-security number of his career. Fumbles lost have also stayed manageable: 3 in 2023, and 2 in 2025. For a drafter willing to wait at quarterback, Love offers a recognizable statistical profile with a mobile element attached.

What the model projects

The projection is 216.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Love at QB20 and #191 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -42.5, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 216.1 is above the median simulated season of 197.1, so the distribution carries some upside weight. He has a bye in Week 11.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 75.1 points. The 25th percentile sits at 138.7 points. The median outcome is 197.1 points. Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 270.7 points and the 90th percentile reaches 333.4 points. That is a spread of roughly 258 points between the bottom and top decile, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance at the position. The 2024 stat line, 3,389 pass yards and 25 touchdowns on 425 attempts with only 25 rush attempts, illustrates what the lower end of his range can look like. The 2023 line illustrates the upper end. A drafter taking Love is accepting that gap.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Love at pick 155.5, which works out to round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That is late-draft territory. The model has him at #191 overall and QB20. His draft value is negative, so the projection does not clear replacement level at quarterback in this format. For a drafter running a late-quarterback strategy, Love is a name that comes off the board in the final rounds. The wide outcome band means the upside is real, but so is the floor. Plan a streaming or handoff option at the position given the Week 11 bye and the variance the band reflects.

The projection is 216.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the point estimate; the median simulated season is 197.1 points, so the two numbers are close but not identical. He ranks QB20 and #191 overall in Tier 9.

Over the 2023-2025 window he averaged 481 pass attempts, 3,643 pass yards, and 26.7 passing touchdowns per season. His interception totals were 11, 11, and 6 across those three years, with the 2025 figure the lowest of his career.

Ten percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 75.1 points, and the 25th percentile is 138.7 points. His 2024 season, 3,389 pass yards and 25 touchdowns on 425 attempts with only 25 rush attempts, is a useful reference for what a reduced output year looks like in practice.

The market is drafting him at pick 155.5, round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. His bye is Week 11, so any drafter rostering him should account for that gap when building out the quarterback depth on the roster.