#121 overall · KC · 110.9 projected half-PPR pts · -17.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 113.4
Xavier Worthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Xavier Worthy's 2024 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He pulled in 59 receptions on 98 targets for 638 receiving yards, added 20 rush attempts for 104 yards, and scored 9 total touchdowns. That is a genuine dual-threat profile, and the target volume alone signals a real role in the offense. The three-year averages back it up: 85.5 targets, 50.5 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and 3.5 receiving touchdowns per season. The rushing layer, averaging 15.5 attempts and 95.5 yards per year, adds a floor that pure pass-catchers at this tier do not carry. If the 2024 usage level reasserts itself, the upside is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Worthy at WR51 and #121 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -17.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 110.9 is above the median simulated season of 103.6, so the distribution carries a modest upward skew. He carries a Week 5 bye.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 98 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 20 | 104 | 3 | 157.7 |
| 2025 | 73 | 42 | 532 | 1 | 11 | 87 | — | 88.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 85.5 | 50.5 | 585 | 3.5 | 15.5 | 95.5 | 1.5 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 37.7 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile lands at 66.7 points, still a difficult roster spot to justify. The median simulated season is 103.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 139.1 points and the top-10% threshold is 183.7 points. That 183.7 ceiling is meaningful, but the distance between the floor and the ceiling is substantial. Worthy's season-to-season history reflects that same variance: 638 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in 2024, then 532 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown in 2025. Drafters are buying a wide range of possibilities, not a reliable floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 113.4, which translates to pick 10.05 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a 10th-round pick. At WR51 and #121 overall in Tier 9, Worthy is a late-round flier. In a 12-team half-PPR league, the 10th round is the appropriate window to target him if you want him on your roster. His negative draft value means he projects below replacement level, so he is best used as a depth piece or a high-variance lottery ticket rather than a building block. If the 2024 target and touchdown volume returns, the 183.7-point ceiling becomes relevant. If 2025 is the baseline, it does not.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he caught 59 of 98 targets for 638 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns, adding 20 rush attempts for 104 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 42 of 73 targets for 532 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown, with 11 rush attempts for 87 yards. Targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns all declined year over year.
The projection is 110.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him WR51 and #121 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -17.8, which is below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP is 113.4, which works out to pick 10.05 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan to spend a 10th-round pick if you want him.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 37.7 points; the 90th percentile is 183.7 points. The median simulated season is 103.6 points. That 146-point spread from floor to ceiling reflects genuine season-to-season variance, as his own 2024 and 2025 stat lines illustrate.
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Beyond the numbers
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