#100 overall · KC · 115.3 projected half-PPR pts · -7.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 110.4
Xavier Worthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Xavier Worthy ran 98 targets in his 2024 rookie season, catching 59 of them for 638 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns while adding 104 rush yards and 3 rush touchdowns on 20 carries. That is a legitimate dual-threat workload for a first-year receiver in Kansas City. The target volume alone — nearly 100 looks — signals genuine involvement in the offense, and the touchdown production confirmed he was trusted in scoring situations. His 2025 season saw a step back: 73 targets, 42 receptions, 532 receiving yards, and just 1 receiving touchdown, with the rush-touchdown contribution disappearing entirely. The three-year averages tell the honest story — 85.5 targets, 50.5 receptions, 585 receiving yards, 3.5 receiving touchdowns, and 1.5 rush touchdowns per season. There is a real player here. The question is which version shows up.
What the model projects
The model projects Worthy at 115.3 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output places him at WR46 and #100 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -7.3, meaning the projection comes in below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a player whose floor and ceiling are both real but whose median projection does not clear the bar needed to return value at the position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 104 | 3 | 98 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 157.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 73 | 42 | 532 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 15.5 | 95.5 | 1.5 | 85.5 | 50.5 | 585 | 3.5 | — | — | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
Worthy's two-year history already illustrates the variance baked into his profile. In 2024 he posted 638 receiving yards and 9 combined touchdowns across receiving and rushing; in 2025 those numbers fell to 532 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown with zero rush scores. The swing between those two seasons is wide, and it is the central tension in his outlook. A season closer to his 2024 form — with touchdowns returning and target share holding — produces a meaningfully different fantasy result than a repeat of 2025. His dual-threat usage adds a second variable: the rushing involvement (20 attempts in 2024, 11 in 2025) can inflate or deflate his final line independent of the passing game. Drafters should expect a bumpy ride regardless of which direction the season breaks.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Worthy at pick 10.02 in 12-team drafts — an ADP of 110.4 across two platforms. Our model has him at #100 overall. His bye is Week 5, which is early enough to plan around without major disruption. At his current draft cost, he is a late-round flier on a player who has shown genuine upside in one of his two professional seasons. Given his -7.3 draft value, he is best treated as a depth piece or a touchdown-dependent upside play rather than a building block of a roster. If you are targeting him, know what you are buying: a high-variance receiver whose 2024 ceiling is real but whose 2025 floor is equally on the table.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 Worthy posted 98 targets, 59 receptions, 638 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, and 3 rush touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers fell to 73 targets, 42 receptions, 532 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, and 0 rush touchdowns — a significant step back across every category.
The model projects 115.3 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him at WR46 and #100 overall in Tier 9. His draft value of -7.3 means the projection sits below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market ADP is 110.4 — pick 10.02 in a 12-team draft — based on a median across two platforms. That is where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
It has been in the past — he logged 20 rush attempts for 104 yards and 3 rush touchdowns in 2024, and 11 attempts for 87 yards in 2025. The three-year average is 15.5 rush attempts and 1.5 rush touchdowns per season. That usage adds a real but inconsistent secondary scoring path.