#921 overall · MIN · 44.2 projected half-PPR pts · -215.2 Draft Value
Carson Wentz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Carson Wentz is QB44 on a Minnesota roster, carrying a draftValue of -215.2 in a 12-team half-PPR format. His three-year aggregate tells the story: 70.7 pass attempts, 499 pass yards, and 2.7 passing touchdowns per season on average. His most active recent season, 2025, produced 1,216 passing yards, 110 completions, and 6 touchdowns across 169 attempts, with 5 interceptions and 3 fumbles. Those are limited-role numbers. The honest case for rostering him is purely situational: he is on a roster, he has a bye in Week 6, and in the deepest of leagues a warm body at QB can matter late in the season.
What the model projects
The projection is 44.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That places Wentz at #921 overall and QB44, sitting in Tier 9. His draftValue is -215.2, meaning the projection lands well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR league.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | 17 | 163 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 1 | — | 25.1 |
| 2024 | 19 | 12 | 118 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 169 | 110 | 1216 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 57 | — | 3 | 73.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 70.7 | 46.3 | 499 | 2.7 | 2 | 10.3 | 37.7 | 0.3 | 1 | 34.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 0.0 points. The 25th percentile is 3.1 points. The median simulated season produces just 9.3 points. Even at the 75th percentile, the number is 37.9. Only at the 90th percentile, the top 10% of simulated seasons, does the total reach 99.3 points. That shape reflects a player whose most likely outcomes cluster near zero, with a long tail of upside that requires a specific set of circumstances to materialize.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wentz has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough on any tracked platform to produce one. In practical terms, he is a free agent in most drafts. There is no pick cost to weigh here. If you are in a deep league and need a late-game handcuff at quarterback, he is available off the wire. In standard 12-team formats, he does not belong on a draft-day roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 44.2 half-PPR points with a draftValue of -215.2, which is well below replacement level. He ranks QB44 and #921 overall in Tier 9. In a standard 12-team format, the numbers do not support rostering him.
Over the last three seasons his per-season averages are 70.7 pass attempts, 499 passing yards, 2.7 passing touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His most active season in that window, 2025, produced 169 attempts, 1,216 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 3 fumbles.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 99.3 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of outcomes. The median simulated season is 9.3 points, and the 25th percentile is 3.1, so the upside scenario is a genuine outlier relative to the most likely outcomes.
He has no market ADP across tracked platforms, which means he is not being selected consistently in public 2026 drafts. No pick is required to secure him in most draft formats.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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