#922 overall · WAS · 53.4 projected half-PPR pts · -214.0 Draft Value
Marcus Mariota — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a compelling fantasy case for Marcus Mariota in 2026 snake drafts. He sits at QB42 and #922 overall, deep in Tier 9, with a draft value of -214.0 — well below replacement level at the quarterback position. His most active recent season, 2025, produced 1,695 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 297 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown on 227 pass attempts and 50 rush attempts. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 741 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 147 rushing yards, and 2.7 interceptions per season — numbers that reflect a player operating in a limited role. His bye falls in Week 7. The facts on the board do not build a case for rostering him in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
What the model projects
The projection for Mariota is 53.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His draft value is -214.0, meaning the projection lands 214.0 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR league. He is ranked QB42 and #922 overall.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | 15 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 44 | 34 | 364 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 45.8 |
| 2025 | 227 | 139 | 1695 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 297 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 130.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 98 | 62.7 | 741 | 5 | 2.7 | 25.3 | 147 | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | — | — | 65.8 |
The range of outcomes
No simulation band data is available for Mariota in these FACTS, so the full percentile spread cannot be reported. What is on record: his season-level output has varied considerably across the three most recent years. In 2023 he attempted just 23 passes for 164 yards and 1 touchdown. In 2024 that grew to 44 attempts, 364 yards, and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he reached 227 attempts, 1,695 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 297 rushing yards — but also 7 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost. The three-year averages (741 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 147 rushing yards per season) reflect how wide that band of outcomes has been historically. The upside exists only if his 2025 workload represents a floor; the downside is a return to the limited usage of 2023–2024.
How to draft him
Mariota is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor a drafting strategy around. At QB42 and #922 overall with a -214.0 draft value, he is a deep-roster emergency option at best. In a standard 12-team snake draft, there is no round at which targeting him makes sense as part of a planned roster build. If you carry him at all, it is as a late-waiver-wire contingency, not a drafted asset.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers say no. He projects for 53.4 fantasy points, ranks QB42 and #922 overall, and carries a draft value of -214.0 — 214 points below replacement level at quarterback. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted across public platforms.
In 2025 he completed 139 of 227 pass attempts for 1,695 yards and 10 touchdowns, with 7 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost. He added 297 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 50 carries.
Very inconsistent. He averaged 98 pass attempts, 741 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 147 rushing yards per season from 2023 through 2025. His 2023 and 2024 seasons were extremely limited (23 and 44 pass attempts, respectively), while 2025 saw a significant jump to 227 attempts.
He has no market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to have one. There is no target round or pick window to plan around. He is a #922 overall, QB42 player with a deeply negative draft value, and is not a planned draft target in a standard 12-team format.