#919 overall · WAS · 53.4 projected half-PPR pts · -206.4 Draft Value
Marcus Mariota — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Marcus Mariota is QB43 and sits at #919 overall in Tier 9. His draftValue is -206.4, meaning the projection places him well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His most active recent season, 2025, produced 1,695 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 297 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown across 227 pass attempts and 50 rush attempts. That is the most volume he has seen across the three seasons on record. The three-year averages tell a more cautious story: 741 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 147 rushing yards per season. If you are building a case, it rests entirely on the 2025 line being a signal of expanded opportunity rather than a ceiling.
What the model projects
The projection is 53.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That number reflects a quarterback operating at the fringes of fantasy relevance. His draftValue of -206.4 places him 206.4 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in this format. The rank is QB43, #919 overall, Tier 9. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | 15 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 52 | — | 1 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 44 | 34 | 364 | 4 | — | 18 | 92 | 1 | — | 45.8 |
| 2025 | 227 | 139 | 1695 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 297 | 1 | 6 | 130.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 98 | 62.7 | 741 | 5 | 2.7 | 25.3 | 147 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 65.8 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward low-end results. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces essentially nothing. The p25 is 7.9 points. The median simulated season lands at 16.3 points. The p75 reaches 56.3 points, and the p90 tops out at 117.5 points. The gap between the median and the p90 is large, which reflects genuine upside uncertainty, but the gap between the median and the p10 is equally stark. In most simulated seasons, this projection produces very little fantasy value. The 2025 season included 6 fumbles and 3 fumbles lost alongside 7 interceptions, a turnover profile that weighs on the floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Mariota has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a free agent in virtually every format. At QB43 and #919 overall, he belongs on a roster only as a deep emergency option, and only after every meaningful quarterback on the rankings has been accounted for. His bye is Week 7. If you carry him at all, plan around that absence from the start.
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Questions drafters ask
At QB43 and #919 overall with a draftValue of -206.4, he projects well below replacement level. He has no market ADP, meaning the public is not drafting him consistently. He is a deep emergency option at best.
In 2025 he posted 1,695 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 297 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown on 227 pass attempts and 50 rush attempts. That is his highest-volume season across the three years on record. The three-year per-season averages are 741 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns, so 2025 stands well above the norm.
The simulated season band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 117.5 points at the p90, with a median of 16.3 points. The spread is large, but the distribution is heavily weighted toward the low end: the p25 is just 7.9 points.
He has no market ADP, so he is undrafted in most public 2026 drafts. There is no pick cost to add him. At QB43, he is a waiver-wire or final-round depth piece, not a player who requires a meaningful draft investment.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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