#919 overall · TB · 40.6 projected half-PPR pts · -218.7 Draft Value
Jake Browning — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Browning is a Tampa Bay quarterback with a real NFL track record. His most complete season came in 2023, when he threw for 1,936 yards and 12 passing touchdowns on 243 attempts, added 127 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns on 27 carries, and finished with a 171-of-243 completion line. That season stands as proof he can produce at the NFL level when given the opportunity. His 2025 line of 771 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown on just 125 attempts shows the same efficiency in a smaller sample. For a drafter who needs a late-roster quarterback or a deep handcuff at the position, Browning is a name with a real floor of demonstrated NFL production.
What the model projects
The projection is 40.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Browning ranks QB45 and sits at #919 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -218.7, which is below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 243 | 171 | 1936 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 127 | 3 | 3 | 148.9 |
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | -2 | — | — | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 125 | 81 | 771 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 56.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 122.7 | 84 | 902.3 | 6 | 5 | 12.7 | 54.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 68.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed heavily toward low-end results. The p10 outcome is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The p25 is 1.3 points and the median (p50) is just 6.7 points. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the p75 outcome is 31.0 points and the p90 reaches 92.0 points. That top-decile outcome reflects what Browning showed in 2023, but the median outcome is a near-zero fantasy contribution. This is a high-variance profile with a low central tendency.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Browning does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. There is no pick cost to roster him in the vast majority of leagues, and no draft-slot timing to plan around. If you want him on your roster, the window to add him is likely the waiver wire rather than the draft itself.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His projection is 40.6 half-PPR points and his draft value is -218.7, placing him below replacement level at QB45 and #919 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues. In most formats he is a waiver-wire name, not a draft-pick target.
In 2023 he completed 171 of 243 passes for 1,936 yards and 12 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, and added 127 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns on 27 carries. That is the high-water mark in his recorded history.
Very wide. The p10 simulated outcome is 0.0 points and the median (p50) is 6.7 points. The p90 outcome reaches 92.0 points. The upside is real but the central tendency is near zero, making this a high-variance, low-floor profile.
Across the 2023-2025 aggregate, he averaged 902.3 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 1.3 rushing touchdowns, 54.7 rushing yards, and 5 interceptions per season. Those averages are pulled down by limited playing time in 2024 and 2025 relative to his 2023 workload.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →