#178 overall · JAX · 80.8 projected half-PPR pts · -39.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 162.8
Brenton Strange — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brenton Strange has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine production growth. In 2024 he caught 40 passes for 411 yards and 2 touchdowns on 53 targets. In 2025 those numbers climbed to 46 receptions, 540 yards, and 3 touchdowns on 60 targets. The three-year averages tell the same story: 30.3 receptions, 40.7 targets, and 2 touchdowns per season, with the most recent campaigns pulling those averages upward. For a drafter willing to wait at the position, Strange represents a player whose role in Jacksonville's offense has expanded in each of the last two seasons.
What the model projects
The projection is 80.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Strange is ranked TE22 and sits at #178 overall. His draft value is -39.8, placing him in Tier 9. That negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 86.9 points, sits modestly above the point estimate, reflecting the shape of his outcome distribution.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 1 | — | 12.0 |
| 2024 | 53 | 40 | 411 | 2 | 1 | 71.1 |
| 2025 | 60 | 46 | 540 | 3 | — | 95.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.7 | 30.3 | 328.7 | 2 | 0.3 | 60.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 31.6 points, a near-zero-value outcome. The 25th percentile lands at 56.1 points, still a below-replacement result. The median is 86.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 110.1 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 139.9 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a 139.9-point season would represent a significant step forward from anything in his recent history. The floor, however, is real. Strange's bye falls in Week 7, a planning note for roster construction.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP for Strange is 162.8, which works out to pick 14.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick, consistent with his standing as a back-of-roster tight end option. At TE22 and #178 overall, Strange is a depth play rather than a starter in most formats. If you are targeting him, the 14th round is where the market is currently pricing him.
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Questions drafters ask
The target numbers have risen in each of the three seasons on record: 9 in 2023, 53 in 2024, and 60 in 2025. That is a consistent upward trend, not a single-year anomaly, though the three-year average of 40.7 targets per season reflects how limited his 2023 role was.
The projection is 80.8 points, which is a below-replacement figure at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR league. The top 10% of simulated seasons reach 139.9 points, so there is an upside scenario, but the median outcome at 86.9 points keeps him firmly in streaming or depth territory.
Market ADP puts him at pick 162.8, or roughly the 7th pick of the 14th round in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms, so the sample is limited, but it signals he is available very late in most drafts.
He lost one fumble in 2024 and had one fumble total that season. His 2025 line shows no fumbles lost. The three-year average is 0.3 fumbles per season, so it is a minor data point rather than a pattern.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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