#166 overall · JAX · 81.1 projected half-PPR pts · -30.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 129.4
Brenton Strange — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brenton Strange has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine production growth. In 2024 he caught 40 of 53 targets for 411 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2025 he built on that: 46 receptions on 60 targets, 540 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. His three-year averages — 30.3 receptions, 40.7 targets, and 2 receiving touchdowns per season — reflect a player who has steadily carved out a real role in Jacksonville's offense. The touchdown line in particular has ticked up each year, from 1 in 2023 to 2 in 2024 to 3 in 2025. That trajectory is the core of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 81.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Strange at TE22 and #166 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -30.9, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position. These numbers reflect where the model lands — a player with a real role but one whose projected output does not clear the bar set by the top of the position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 40 | 411 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 46 | 540 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 95.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 40.7 | 30.3 | 328.7 | 2 | 0.3 | — | — | 60.0 |
The range of outcomes
No simulated outcome band is available for Strange in this projection set, so the honest answer is that the 81.1-point projection is the number to anchor on. What the history does show is real variance in his season-to-season stat lines: targets have ranged from 9 in 2023 to 60 in 2025, and receiving yards have gone from 35 to 540 over that same span. The upside scenario is a continuation of the 2025 trajectory; the downside is a reversion toward the lighter usage of earlier years. His three-year average of 40.7 targets per season is the middle ground.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Strange going at pick 11.09 in a 12-team draft — that is round 11, pick 9, based on a median across two platforms. Our rank is #166 overall. At that draft slot, Strange is a late-round flier at a position where late-round upside matters. His bye is Week 7, worth noting when building your roster. If you want him, round 11 is when the market says you need to spend the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
The growth has been consistent across three seasons. He saw 9 targets in 2023, 53 in 2024, and 60 in 2025 — a clear upward trend, not a single spike. His three-year average is 40.7 targets per season.
The projection is 81.1 half-PPR points. That ranks him TE22 and #166 overall with a draft value of -30.9, which is below replacement level at tight end. The numbers are what they are — a real role, but not a top-end fantasy contributor at the position.
Market ADP puts him at pick 11.09 in a 12-team draft — round 11, pick 9 — based on a median across two platforms. That is the draft slot where he is currently being taken.
He has scored in each of the last three seasons: 1 receiving touchdown in 2023, 2 in 2024, and 3 in 2025. His three-year average is 2 receiving touchdowns per season. The trend is positive, but the raw totals are modest.