Kayshon Boutte — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Kayshon Boutte's 2025 season showed real progress in one area: touchdowns. He hauled in 6 receiving touchdowns on 46 targets, a rate that stands out against his 2024 line of 3 touchdowns on 68 targets. His receiving yardage held steady too, with 551 yards in 2025 after 589 in 2024. That back-to-back presence on the stat sheet, after a near-invisible 2023 (19 yards on 7 targets), at least confirms he has carved out a role. The touchdown efficiency in 2025 is the one number a drafter can point to as a genuine positive signal.

What the model projects

The projection is 89.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Boutte at WR68 and #179 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -39.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year average across 2023-2025 is 26 receptions, 40.3 targets, and 386.3 receiving yards per season, with 3 receiving touchdowns per year. The projection reflects that full body of work, not just the most recent season.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. The median outcome (p50) is 72.3 points, which is actually below the point estimate of 89.2, signaling that the distribution is skewed by a relatively small number of high-end outcomes. In a bad season (p10), Boutte finishes at 18.4 points. In a good season (p25), he reaches 40.0. A strong season (p75) gets him to 108.7, and a top-10% outcome (p90) lands at 159.8. That p90 ceiling is meaningful, but the floor is severe: the bottom quarter of simulated seasons produces fewer than 40 points. This is a high-variance profile with a downside that is very real.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Boutte at pick 205.4 on average, which works out to round 18, pick 1 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across 2 platforms). That is deep-draft territory. His rank of #179 overall and a negative draft value of -39.6 frame him as a below-replacement-level option at the position. If you are carrying him on a roster, it is as a late-round flier on the touchdown upside his 2025 line hinted at, with full awareness that the median simulated season comes in at 72.3 points and the floor is very low.

The model projects him at 89.2 points with a draft value of -39.6, which is below replacement level at wide receiver. The median simulated season is 72.3 points. He is a Tier 9 option at WR68, so he is best treated as a late-round depth add rather than a reliable contributor.

The p90 simulated outcome is 159.8 half-PPR points, and his p75 outcome is 108.7. His 2025 season produced 6 receiving touchdowns on 46 targets, which is the clearest source of that upside. The band is wide, so the ceiling exists, but it requires things to break well.

The market ADP is 205.4, or round 18, pick 1 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). That is late enough that he will be available in most drafts well into the final rounds.

His three-year averages from 2023 to 2025 are 26 receptions, 40.3 targets, 386.3 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns per season. However, 2023 was a near-absent season (19 yards, 7 targets), while 2024 and 2025 were meaningfully more active. The aggregate smooths over a very uneven track record.