#182 overall · ATL · 81.5 projected half-PPR pts · -35.4 Draft Value
Brian Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brian Robinson is now in Atlanta, and the case for him is straightforward: he is a proven between-the-tackles runner with back-to-back seasons of 178 and 187 rush attempts. In 2024 he posted 799 rushing yards and 8 rush touchdowns on those 187 carries — the touchdown rate is real, and it has shown up consistently. His three-year average of 152.3 rush attempts and 5 rush touchdowns per season confirms he can hold a meaningful workload when given the opportunity. If Atlanta deploys him as a primary ball-carrier, the touchdown upside is the engine of his fantasy value.
What the model projects
The projection is 81.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -35.4, placing him #182 overall and RB43 — Tier 9 on the board. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR context. The projection is the headline; the draft value tells you where he stands relative to the baseline at his position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 733 | 5 | 43 | 36 | 368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 178.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 799 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 159 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 149.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 400 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 58.5 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 152.3 | 644 | 5 | 26.7 | 21.3 | 184 | 1.3 | 2 | — | — | 131.3 |
The range of outcomes
Robinson's recent history illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. In 2023 he totaled 733 rushing yards, 368 receiving yards, 5 rush touchdowns, and 4 receiving touchdowns — a genuinely productive fantasy season. In 2024 the receiving production dropped sharply (159 yards, 0 receiving touchdowns) but the rush touchdowns climbed to 8. In 2025 the counting stats compressed significantly: 92 rush attempts, 400 rushing yards, 2 rush touchdowns, 8 receptions, and 25 receiving yards. That three-season arc — from a full workload with multi-dimensional production, to a touchdown-heavy but narrower role, to a sharply reduced stat line — captures the variance a drafter is buying into. The upside is a double-digit touchdown season; the floor is a stat line that barely registers in fantasy.
How to draft him
Robinson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At RB43 and #182 overall in Tier 9, he is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in 12-team formats. His negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level, so the calculus is simple: he is a depth add or a handcuff play, not a player to spend meaningful draft capital on. His bye is Week 11, worth noting when constructing late-roster depth.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He averaged 152.3 rush attempts per season over 2023–2025. The individual season totals were 178 attempts in 2023, 187 in 2024, and 92 in 2025.
The projection of 81.5 half-PPR points and a draft value of -35.4 place him at RB43 and #182 overall in Tier 9 — below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR context. He projects as a depth piece, not a starter.
He scored 5 rush touchdowns and 4 receiving touchdowns in 2023, then 8 rush touchdowns and 0 receiving touchdowns in 2024. His three-year average is 5 rush touchdowns and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per season, so double-digit touchdown seasons are within his range when he holds a full role.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At RB43 and #182 overall, he is a late-depth or waiver-wire target rather than a player requiring a committed draft pick.