#178 overall · MIA · 87.9 projected half-PPR pts · -39.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 359.0
Ollie Gordon — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ollie Gordon is on the Miami roster as an RB with a real, if limited, NFL stat line behind him. His 2025 season produced 70 rush attempts, 199 rushing yards, 7 receptions on 9 targets, 32 receiving yards, and 4 total touchdowns. That three-year aggregate matches his 2025 line exactly, meaning his entire NFL production is concentrated in that one season. For a drafter working the late rounds of a 2026 snake draft, that is the foundation: a player who has touched the ball in the league and found the end zone four times in a single campaign.
What the model projects
The projection for Gordon is 87.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -39.3, placing him #178 overall and RB42 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 86.4 points, tracks closely with the 87.9 point estimate, so the two numbers are consistent with each other.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70 | 199 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 50.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 70 | 199 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 50.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 16.9 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile comes in at 43.4 points, still a thin return. The median sits at 86.4 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 129.4 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons hits 177.5 points. That upper tail is meaningful. A drafter who lands Gordon in the final rounds is not paying for the median; the bet is on the right side of that distribution. The downside, however, is real and the more likely outcome given where the percentiles cluster.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Gordon's market ADP is 359.0, drawn from two platforms, which works out to pick 30.11 in a 12-team draft. A standard snake draft runs 15 rounds, so this pick does not exist in most formats. In a deeper league that extends to 30 or more rounds, that is the range where the market is currently pricing him. His model rank is #178 overall and RB42. Drafters in standard-depth leagues should treat him as a post-draft waiver wire name rather than a pick to plan around. In deeper formats, he is a late-round flier on the chance that his 2025 role expands in Miami.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His entire recorded NFL history is a single season in 2025: 70 rush attempts, 199 rushing yards, 7 receptions on 9 targets, 32 receiving yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown. The three-year aggregate matches those numbers exactly, so 2025 is the full picture.
The top 10% of simulated seasons projects to 177.5 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 129.4 points. Those are the numbers that define the optimistic range of outcomes.
His market ADP of 359.0 converts to pick 30.11 in a 12-team draft, which is beyond the range of a standard 15-round format. In a standard league he is a waiver wire candidate, not a draft target.
Tier 9 is a group assigned by clustering draft values across all positions. It reflects a projection below replacement level at the running back position, with a draft value of -39.3. The tier placement signals he is among the lower-value players in the overall rankings, not a priority pick in any standard-depth format.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →