Baker Mayfield — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Baker Mayfield has been one of the more durable volume passers in the league over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, averaging 559.7 attempts, 371.3 completions, and 4,079 passing yards per year. His 2024 season was the high-water mark of that stretch: 4,500 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, and 3 rushing touchdowns on 378 rushing yards. The rushing contribution is real and consistent, with 307.7 rushing yards per season across the three-year window. His 2025 line stepped back from that peak, but the volume held: 543 attempts, 3,693 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and 382 rushing yards. For a drafter willing to wait at the position, the floor here is a high-volume starter with a genuine dual-threat element.

What the model projects

The projection is 231.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Mayfield at QB16 and #146 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -28.4, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages of 31.7 passing touchdowns and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per season, alongside 12.3 interceptions and 9.7 fumbles, are the historical inputs the numbers reflect. The projection is 231.1 points; the median simulated season (p50) is 216.1 points, and those two figures are not the same.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the bottom 10% of outcomes, the season finishes at 85.4 points. The 25th percentile is 157.2 points. The median simulated season is 216.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 286.7 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons lands at 345.7 points. That is a spread of 260.3 points from p10 to p90, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance. The 2024 season showed what the upside looks like; the 2025 season showed the downside is real. Fumble totals have been elevated across all three seasons, with 9.7 fumbles per year on average and 3.0 fumbles lost per year, a consistent drag on the floor.

How to draft him

Mayfield's market ADP is 143.1, which works out to pick 12.11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is late in the draft, where the cost of a starting quarterback is low. His bye is Week 10. At QB16 with a negative draft value, he profiles as a late-round streaming option rather than an anchor. The upside band at p90 is 345.7 points, so the ceiling is worth chasing at that price, but the floor at p10 is 85.4 points, and that risk is real. Draft him as a depth piece with upside, not as a primary solution.

The projection is 231.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks QB16 at the position and #146 overall, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -28.4.

Across 2023 through 2025, he averaged 559.7 pass attempts, 4,079 passing yards, and 31.7 passing touchdowns per season. His best single season in that window was 2024: 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. His 2025 season came in at 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns.

His market ADP is 143.1, which translates to pick 12.11 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round price for a starting quarterback.

The simulated season band runs from 85.4 points at the 10th percentile to 345.7 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 216.1 points and the 25th percentile is 157.2 points, so the downside is meaningful. The 75th percentile is 286.7 points, reflecting a real ceiling if things break right.