#193 overall · TB · 228.9 projected half-PPR pts · -38.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 138.2
Baker Mayfield — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Baker Mayfield has been one of the more durable, high-volume quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 559.7 pass attempts, 4,079 pass yards, and 31.7 passing touchdowns per year. He adds a rushing dimension — 59 rush attempts and 307.7 rush yards per season on average — that keeps his floor from collapsing in low-scoring games. His 2024 season was his best of the three: 4,500 pass yards, 41 passing touchdowns, and 3 rushing scores on 570 attempts. That ceiling is real and on the record.
What the model projects
The projection is 228.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Mayfield at QB16 and #193 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -38.5, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He carries a bye in Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 566 | 364 | 4044 | 28 | 10 | 62 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 280.1 |
| 2024 | 570 | 407 | 4500 | 41 | 16 | 60 | 378 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 379.8 |
| 2025 | 543 | 343 | 3693 | 26 | 11 | 55 | 382 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 278.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 559.7 | 371.3 | 4079 | 31.7 | 12.3 | 59 | 307.7 | 1.7 | — | — | — | — | 9.7 | — | — | 318.6 |
The range of outcomes
Mayfield's three-season history illustrates genuine variance. Passing touchdowns swung from 26 in 2025 to 41 in 2024. Interceptions ranged from 10 to 16, and fumbles ranged from 7 to 11 per season — with fumbles lost averaging 2.67 per year (3 in 2023, 2 in 2024, 3 in 2025). The 2024 version of Mayfield is a QB1-caliber season; the 2025 version — 3,693 pass yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions — is a back-end starter at best. Both outcomes live inside his realistic range heading into 2026.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Mayfield going at pick 138.2 — round 12, pick 6 in a 12-team draft (sourced from 2 platforms). Our projection places him at #193 overall and QB16. In a single-QB league, the late-round cost means he is typically available as a streaming option or handcuff rather than a cornerstone. In a superflex or 2QB format, the calculus shifts — his volume and rushing floor make him a more meaningful target at that draft slot. Plan around his Week 10 bye.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 559.7 pass attempts, 4,079 pass yards, and 31.7 passing touchdowns per year from 2023 through 2025 — consistent high-volume work across all three seasons.
Yes. He has averaged 59 rush attempts and 307.7 rush yards per season over the past three years, with rushing touchdowns of 1, 3, and 1 in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively.
The projection is 228.9 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him QB16 and #193 overall in Tier 9. His draft value of -38.5 puts him below replacement level at quarterback on a 12-team half-PPR baseline.
Market ADP puts him at pick 138.2 — round 12, pick 6 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. In single-QB leagues he is typically a late-round target; in superflex or 2QB formats his volume and rushing floor make that draft slot more meaningful.