#119 overall · SEA · 100.3 projected half-PPR pts · -16.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 132.3
Zach Charbonnet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Charbonnet's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his profile yet: 184 rush attempts, 730 rush yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns. That touchdown total is a genuine leap from the 8 he posted in 2024 and the 1 he managed in 2023, and it anchors the argument for rostering him. His three-year averages — 142.3 rush attempts, 587 rush yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns per season — show steady volume growth year over year. He also contributes as a receiver, averaging 31.7 receptions and 231 receiving yards per season over that same span. The receiving work has thinned (52 targets in 2024, 24 in 2025), but the rushing role has expanded to compensate. If the touchdown rate holds anywhere near its 2025 level, the fantasy floor is meaningful.
What the model projects
The projection is 100.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Charbonnet at #119 overall and RB32, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -16.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR context. The number reflects a back with real touchdown upside but a receiving role that has contracted and a volume ceiling that keeps the point total modest.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 462 | 1 | 40 | 33 | 209 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 569 | 8 | 52 | 42 | 340 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 165.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 730 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 142.3 | 587 | 7 | 38.7 | 31.7 | 231 | 0.3 | — | — | 141.5 |
The range of outcomes
Charbonnet's season-outcome band is wide enough to matter. His 2025 rushing touchdown total of 12 shows what the ceiling looks like when the red-zone work concentrates in his hands; his 2023 line of 108 carries, 462 rush yards, and 1 rushing touchdown shows what the floor looks like when it doesn't. The projection at 100.3 points sits in a range where a modest shift in touchdown volume — up or down — moves the fantasy result substantially. Drafters should treat the touchdown rate as the primary variable driving outcomes, with receiving volume as a secondary lever.
How to draft him
The market is taking Charbonnet at an average of pick 132.3 — that is round 11, pick 12 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our rank is #119 overall, and his bye week is 11. At this stage of a draft, roster construction context matters: he is a back with a demonstrated touchdown-scoring role and a projection that sits below replacement level, so he fits best as a handcuff or a late-round dart on touchdown regression. Plan to spend a pick in the 11th round if you want him — that is where the market is clearing him.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 184 times for 730 rush yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. He added 20 receptions for 144 receiving yards, though his target share dropped to 24 on the season.
Below. The projection is 100.3 half-PPR points, and his draft value is -16.6, meaning he projects 16.6 points below the replacement-level baseline at running back in a 12-team half-PPR league.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 132.3, which works out to round 11, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number.
Very. His rushing touchdown totals have been 1 (2023), 8 (2024), and 12 (2025). The three-year average is 7 per season. A season closer to the 2023 end of that range would significantly undercut the projection; a repeat of 2025's pace would push well above it.