#138 overall · SEA · 103.0 projected half-PPR pts · -24.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 128.7
Zach Charbonnet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zach Charbonnet's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his profile to date. He carried the ball 184 times for 730 yards and scored 12 rushing touchdowns, all career highs. That touchdown volume is real production, not noise, and it built on a steady climb: 1 rushing score in 2023, 8 in 2024, 12 in 2025. Over three seasons his per-year averages sit at 142.3 rush attempts, 587 rush yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns. The receiving work has fluctuated season to season, but the ground-game role has grown every year. For a drafter looking at the late rounds, that kind of consistent workload expansion is the foundation of a viable RB.
What the model projects
The projection for Charbonnet is 103.0 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -24.8, placing him #138 overall and RB36 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 103.9 points, lands almost exactly on the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 462 | 1 | 40 | 33 | 209 | — | 89.6 |
| 2024 | 135 | 569 | 8 | 52 | 42 | 340 | 1 | 165.9 |
| 2025 | 184 | 730 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 144 | — | 169.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 142.3 | 587 | 7 | 38.7 | 31.7 | 231 | 0.3 | 141.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 27.3 points, a near-total collapse in production. The 25th percentile comes in at 58.4 points, still a significant step down from the projection. The median sits at 103.9 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 147.9 points and the 90th percentile hits 193.2 points. That top-decile outcome would represent a genuinely useful fantasy season. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 165.9 points, which reflects how volatile a late-round RB's season can be. Charbonnet's floor is low; his ceiling is meaningful.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Charbonnet at an average of pick 128.7, which works out to round 11, pick 9 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you need to spend to secure him. He is ranked #138 overall and sits in Tier 9. His bye week is 11, worth noting when building a late-round roster. At this stage of a draft, the question is simply whether his upside band justifies the pick over other options at the position. The 90th-percentile outcome of 193.2 points is the number a drafter is betting on when they take him here.
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Questions drafters ask
It has risen sharply every season: 1 rushing touchdown in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 12 in 2025. His three-year average is 7 rushing touchdowns per season, pulled down by that 2023 baseline.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 193.2 half-PPR points. That represents the top 10% of projected season outcomes and is the ceiling a drafter is targeting when rostering him.
The 10th-percentile outcome is 27.3 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons project at or below that total. The 25th percentile is 58.4 points. The downside is steep, which is consistent with his Tier 9 placement and negative draft value of -24.8.
The market average is pick 128.7, or round 11, pick 9 in a 12-team draft. That is the current cost to secure him before he is off the table in a typical public draft.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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