#132 overall · CLE · 102.9 projected half-PPR pts · -19.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 151.1
Jerry Jeudy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the clearest argument for Jeudy. He drew 145 targets, hauled in 90 receptions for 1,229 yards, and scored 4 receiving touchdowns — a genuine WR1-caliber workload. That kind of target volume doesn't happen by accident, and it shows the ceiling is real. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 112.7 targets and 64.7 receptions per year, which is a consistent role as a featured receiver. If 2024 is the floor of what his opportunity can look like, there's a usable player here late in drafts.
What the model projects
The projection is 102.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That lands Jeudy at #132 overall and WR54, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -19.6, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. The numbers are what they are: a player with a documented high-volume season on his résumé projecting below the replacement line heading into 2026.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 54 | 758 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 114.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 90 | 1229 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 191.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 106 | 50 | 602 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 1.7 | — | 112.7 | 64.7 | 863 | 2.7 | 0.7 | — | — | 135.0 |
The range of outcomes
The 2025 season illustrates the downside clearly: 106 targets produced only 50 receptions, 602 yards, and 2 touchdowns — a sharp step back from 2024's output. The three-year average of 863 receiving yards per season reflects how much that down year pulls on the mean. The gap between his 2024 peak (1,229 yards, 90 catches) and his 2025 trough (602 yards, 50 catches) is wide, and that variance is the central risk. Jeudy's catch rate and yardage totals have swung significantly year to year, making him a player with a meaningful boom-or-bust profile rather than a steady floor.
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 151.1 — round 13, pick 7 in a 12-team draft (based on 2 platforms). The model has him at #132 overall and WR54. His bye week is 11. At this stage of a draft, you're fishing for upside rather than locking in a floor, and Jeudy's 2024 tape gives you a credible best-case scenario. Know going in that the projection is below replacement level — this is a dart throw on recapturing 2024 form, not a safe late-round anchor.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 145 targets, 90 receptions, 1,229 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns in 2024 — his strongest statistical season across the three years on record.
The projection of 102.9 points produces a draft value of -19.6, placing him below the replacement-level threshold at wide receiver on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. His 2025 season — 106 targets but only 50 receptions, 602 yards, and 2 touchdowns — pulls the outlook down considerably from that 2024 peak.
Market ADP is 151.1, which works out to round 13, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That's based on a median across 2 platforms.
Week 11.