Ty Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Ty Johnson is a Buffalo running back with three consecutive seasons of receiving work on his resume. His target totals have climbed each year: 7 in 2023, 25 in 2024, 33 in 2025. Receptions followed the same arc, from 7 to 18 to 24. That receiving thread is the core of whatever fantasy relevance he carries. On the ground he has been modest but consistent, averaging 40.3 rush attempts per season over the last three years with 181.7 rushing yards per season in that same window. His 2025 season added 5 touchdowns across rushing and receiving, the most productive scoring year of the three. For a drafter hunting late-round depth with a pass-catching profile, that history is the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 44.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That produces a draft value of -83.4, placing Johnson at RB71 and #311 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at his position in a 12-team half-PPR context. The projection is the headline figure; the median simulated season lands at 27.5 points, which is notably lower than the 44.8 point estimate. Both numbers are worth holding in mind.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide and skewed. At the 10th percentile the outcome is 0.0 points, meaning a meaningful share of simulated seasons produce nothing at all. The 25th percentile sits at 8.8 points. The median is 27.5. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 66.7 points and the 90th percentile hits 102.5. That shape tells the story of a player whose most likely outcomes are low, but whose ceiling in a favorable scenario is real. The gap between the p50 and p90 is 75.0 points; the gap between the p10 and p50 is only 27.5. This is a high-variance, low-floor profile.

How to draft him

Johnson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At RB71 and #311 overall with a draft value of -83.4, he is a below-replacement-level asset in standard 12-team half-PPR construction. His bye falls in Week 7. If you are carrying him on a roster, plan around that gap. He is a late-add or waiver-wire target rather than a pick you budget for, and his wide outcome band means the upside is real but the floor is the floor.

His target totals have grown in each of the last three seasons, reaching 33 in 2025 with 24 receptions for 263 receiving yards. The three-year average is 21.7 targets and 16.3 receptions per season. That is a real pass-catching role, and it is the primary source of his fantasy relevance.

The projection is 44.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 27.5 points. His draft value is -83.4, which puts him at RB71 and #311 overall in Tier 9, below replacement level at the position.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is 8.8 points, so the floor is very low. The 90th-percentile outcome is 102.5 points, which represents a meaningful ceiling if things break right. The band is wide and skewed toward the downside in its most likely outcomes.

Johnson does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to price. He is a below-replacement-level asset at RB71 and #311 overall, so he is better treated as a waiver-wire or late-add target than a pick you plan to spend.