#243 overall · PHI · 110.3 projected half-PPR pts · -64.1 Draft Value
Jake Elliott — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Elliott has been Philadelphia's kicker through three full seasons of data, and the volume numbers tell a consistent story. Over the 2023-2025 span he averaged 26 made field goals and 44.3 extra points per season, on roughly 31.7 field goal attempts per year. The 2023 season was his cleanest: 30 of 32 field goals converted, only 2 misses, with 7 makes from 40-49 yards and 7 more from 50-plus. That long-range production is the most valuable piece of a kicker's fantasy profile, and Elliott has shown he can deliver it. Philadelphia's offense generates enough scoring opportunities to keep the attempt volume in a range that supports a viable fantasy kicker.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 110.5, essentially in line with that point estimate. Elliott is ranked K18 at the position and #243 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -64.1, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 10.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 2 | 45 | 154.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | 7 | 47 | 134.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | 7 | 41 | 109.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 26 | 5.3 | 44.3 | 39.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for the position. A bad season, bottom 10% of simulated outcomes, lands at 31.5 points. The 25th percentile is 77.8. The median is 110.5. A strong season at the 75th percentile reaches 133.7, and a top-10% outcome pushes to 148.1. That gap between the floor and ceiling, 31.5 to 148.1, reflects how much kicker scoring can swing based on attempt volume, accuracy, and game-script. The 2024 and 2025 seasons each produced 7 missed field goals on 36 and 27 attempts respectively, compared to just 2 misses on 32 attempts in 2023. Accuracy variance is a real factor in where any given season lands within that band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Elliott is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or post-draft addition in most leagues. At K18 and #243 overall with a negative draft value, he is a depth option at the position rather than a target. If you roster him, plan around the Week 10 bye. The 2023 accuracy profile and the long-range field goal history give him a ceiling worth monitoring, but the projection and rank place him outside the range where spending a meaningful pick is warranted.
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Questions drafters ask
Over 2023-2025 he averaged 5.3 missed field goals per season on 31.7 attempts. The range runs from 2 misses in 2023 (his cleanest season) to 7 misses in both 2024 and 2025, so accuracy has been inconsistent across the sample.
In 2023 he made 7 field goals from 50-plus yards. That dropped to 1 in 2024 and came back to 4 in 2025. The 40-49 yard range has been steadier: 7 makes in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 7 in 2025.
Elliott does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively a waiver-wire or final-round target rather than a pick you need to plan for in advance.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 148.1 half-PPR points. His best historical season by volume was 2023, when he made 30 of 32 field goals including 7 from 50-plus yards and converted 45 of 46 extra point attempts.
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Beyond the numbers
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