#235 overall · ATL · 110.2 projected half-PPR pts · -59.5 Draft Value
Nick Folk — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Nick Folk has been one of the more consistent kickers in recent memory by the numbers that matter most: misses. Across the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons, he averaged just one missed field goal per year against an average of 27 attempts. In 2023 he converted 29 of 30 field goal attempts, including 11 from 40 yards or beyond. In 2025 he made 28 of 29 attempts, with 14 of those from 50-plus or 40-49 range combined. The accuracy floor is real and it has held across three seasons. For a drafter who waits on the kicker position and wants a reliable finisher, Folk's track record is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That produces a draft value of -59.5, placing Folk at K18 and #235 overall in Tier 9. The negative draft value reflects where replacement level sits at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format: Folk projects below that threshold. His bye week is Week 11.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 29 | 1 | 28 | 130.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 107.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | 1 | 22 | 126.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 26 | 1 | 25 | 24.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for kickers. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 14.7 points. The 25th percentile is 74.1 points. The median simulated season comes in at 125.6 points, above the 110.2 point estimate. The 75th percentile is 142.6 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach 169.4 points. The gap between a bad season and a good one is substantial: the difference between the p10 and p90 outcomes is more than 150 points. Folk's historical accuracy limits the downside in terms of misses, but volume is the variable that drives the spread.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Folk is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick-number pressure attached to him: he is available as a late-round or final-pick selection in most drafts. At K18 and #235 overall, the rankings place him outside the top kickers in this format. Drafters who target him should do so only after addressing every other position, treating him as a late-round depth option rather than a priority. His accuracy history makes him a reasonable choice if he is still available when you close out your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
Across 2023, 2024, and 2025, Folk averaged one missed field goal per season against an average of 27 attempts per year. In 2023 he went 29-for-30; in 2024, 21-for-22; in 2025, 28-for-29. The three-year aggregate miss total is 1 per season.
The projection is 110.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him K18 and #235 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -59.5.
The simulated season band runs from 14.7 points at the 10th percentile to 169.4 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 125.6 points, and the 75th percentile sits at 142.6 points.
Folk does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to assign a pick number. He is effectively a free agent at the end of most drafts. Given his ranking of K18 and #235 overall, he should be considered only after all other positions are filled.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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