Travis Etienne — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Travis Etienne arrives in New Orleans with three seasons of starting-caliber production on his resume. In 2023 he carried 267 times for 1,008 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns while adding 58 catches for 476 yards. In 2025 he bounced back with 260 rush attempts, 1,107 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, and 6 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the story of a back who can carry a full workload: 225.7 rush attempts, 891 rushing yards, and 6.7 rushing touchdowns per season, with 44.3 receptions and 59 targets layered on top. That receiving floor matters in half-PPR. The combination of volume, touchdown upside, and pass-game involvement is what earns him a positive draft value at his position rank.

What the model projects

The projection is 157.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is +30.2, meaning the projection sits 30.2 points above the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #40 overall and RB23, placing him in Tier 7.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is the honest reality for a back in this tier. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 64.7 points, a number that reflects how badly a worst-case year can go. The 25th percentile is 112.5 points. The median simulated season is 167.1 points, a touch above the 157.6 point estimate. A strong year pushes to 214.7 points at the 75th percentile, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 250.1 points. That upper band is meaningful: 2023 showed what a full workload with touchdowns looks like, and 2025 showed he can replicate the rushing volume. The floor, however, is real. The 2024 line of 150 rush attempts, 558 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns is the cautionary data point sitting inside that p10 range.

How to draft him

Market ADP is 40.6, drawn from 2 platforms, which works out to pick 4.05 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a fourth-round commitment. He is #40 overall by draft value, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he belongs. Plan to spend your fourth-round pick if you want him. At that slot you are paying for the upside of a back who has cleared 1,000 rushing yards twice in three seasons and has back-to-back years of double-digit combined touchdowns in his best campaigns. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.

Three seasons of data show real variance. In 2023: 267 rush attempts, 1,008 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, 58 receptions, 476 receiving yards. In 2024: 150 rush attempts, 558 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 39 receptions, 254 receiving yards. In 2025: 260 rush attempts, 1,107 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, 36 receptions, 292 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages are 225.7 rush attempts, 891 rushing yards, 6.7 rushing touchdowns, 44.3 receptions, and 59 targets per season.

The simulated season band runs from 64.7 points at the 10th percentile to 250.1 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 167.1 points. A 75th-percentile outcome is 214.7 points. The floor is genuine: the p10 number reflects how low a bad season can go, consistent with what the 2024 stat line looked like.

His market ADP is 40.6 across 2 platforms, which translates to pick 4.05 in a 12-team draft. Budget a fourth-round pick if he is your target.

Both elements are present in his history. Over three seasons he has averaged 59 targets and 44.3 receptions per year. His best receiving season was 2023, when he caught 58 of 73 targets for 476 yards. In 2025 he added 6 receiving touchdowns on 36 catches. The pass-game usage is consistent enough to matter in half-PPR scoring.