#53 overall · NO · 130.3 projected half-PPR pts · +13.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 39.2
Travis Etienne — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Travis Etienne arrives in New Orleans with two 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his résumé — 1,008 yards on 267 attempts in 2023 and 1,107 yards on 260 attempts in 2025 — bookending a 2024 campaign that was limited to 558 yards on 150 carries. When healthy and carrying a full load, he has shown he can be a workhorse: 267 attempts in 2023, 260 in 2025, and a three-year average of 225.7 rush attempts per season. He also brings genuine receiving utility, averaging 59 targets and 44.3 receptions per season over that same three-year window. The 2025 season added a new dimension — 6 receiving touchdowns alongside 7 rushing scores — giving him a 13-touchdown ceiling that is hard to ignore at his draft cost.
What the model projects
Our projection has Etienne at 130.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026, producing a Draft Value of +13.5 above replacement level at the running back position. That places him #53 overall and RB21 in our rankings, sitting in Tier 7 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 1008 | 11 | 73 | 58 | 476 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 249.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 558 | 2 | 52 | 39 | 254 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 110.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 1107 | 7 | 52 | 36 | 292 | 6 | — | 0 | 0 | 235.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 225.7 | 891 | 6.7 | 59 | 44.3 | 340.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | — | — | 199.3 |
The range of outcomes
Etienne's season history tells the story of the variance baked into his profile. In 2023 he posted 1,008 rush yards, 476 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns. In 2024 that fell to 558 rush yards, 254 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. In 2025 he rebounded to 1,107 rush yards, 292 receiving yards, and 13 total touchdowns. That swing — from a near-elite season to a sharply diminished one and back — is exactly the kind of volatility the simulated outcome band captures. A strong-case season looks like 2025: a full workload, a high touchdown rate, and meaningful receiving production. A weak-case season looks like 2024: limited carries, minimal scoring, and a receiving role that never fully materialized. The 2024 dip is recent enough that it cannot be dismissed, and the 2025 bounce-back is real enough that it cannot be ignored.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Etienne at pick 39.2 on average — that is round 4, pick 3 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him #53 overall and RB21. Plan your board accordingly: if you want him, round 4 is where you will need to spend the pick. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 1,008 rush yards on 267 attempts in 2023, dropped to 558 yards on 150 attempts in 2024, then rebounded to 1,107 yards on 260 attempts in 2025. The two 1,000-yard seasons are not back-to-back — the 2024 down year sits between them.
He has averaged 59 targets and 44.3 receptions per season over the last three years. His receiving yardage has ranged from 254 to 476 in that span, and in 2025 he caught 6 touchdown passes — so the receiving role is real, even if it fluctuates year to year.
Based on a median ADP of 39.2 across two platforms, the market is taking him in round 4 (pick 3) of a 12-team draft. That is the pick cost you should plan around if he is on your target list.
The projection lands at 130.3 half-PPR points with a Draft Value of +13.5, placing him RB21 and #53 overall in Tier 7. His three-year average of 225.7 rush attempts and 59 targets per season reflects both the high-workload seasons and the limited 2024 campaign.