#40 overall · LV · 150.2 projected half-PPR pts · +29.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.2
Brock Bowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brock Bowers put up one of the more striking rookie seasons a tight end has produced in recent memory. In 2024 he caught 112 passes on 153 targets for 1,194 receiving yards and five touchdowns. That is a volume profile that most tight ends never approach in their prime, let alone in year one. The 2025 season told a different story on the yardage line: 680 yards and 64 receptions on 86 targets. The touchdowns, however, climbed to seven. Averaged across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has pulled in 88 receptions, 937 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns per year. The underlying target share and the touchdown rate together make the case that his role in this offense is real and durable. He sits at TE2 with a positive draft value of +29.6 points above replacement, which means he projects to deliver meaningful surplus over what a drafter could find at the position later in the draft.
What the model projects
The projection for Bowers is 150.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits above replacement level by 29.6 points, placing him at TE2 and #40 overall in Tier 7. His bye week is 13, which is late enough in the season that most managers will have had time to build roster depth before needing a fill-in. The projection reflects a player who has demonstrated the target volume and touchdown upside to be a weekly starter at the position.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 153 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 206.7 |
| 2025 | 86 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 142.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 119.5 | 88 | 937 | 6 | 174.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Bowers runs from 95.0 points at the 10th percentile to 210.6 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 160.7 points, a touch above the 150.2 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 125.3 and the 75th is 183.2. That spread tells you something important: the floor is real. A bottom-decile season at 95.0 points would leave a drafter underserved at the position. The ceiling, though, is substantial. A 90th-percentile outcome at 210.6 points would make him one of the most productive tight ends in fantasy. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is more than 115 points, so this is not a low-variance pick. Drafters who want a safe, narrow outcome band should weigh that carefully. Drafters who want upside at the position will find it here.
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our projection
How to draft him
Bowers is ranked #40 overall and TE2. The market, drawn from two platforms, has him going at an average pick of 33.2, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. That means the typical drafter is spending a third-round pick to land him. If you want him, plan to use a pick in that range. Waiting significantly longer risks him being off the table. His bye in Week 13 is worth noting at draft time so you can plan roster construction accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he caught 112 passes on 153 targets for 1,194 receiving yards and five touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 64 passes on 86 targets for 680 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Averaged across 2023 through 2025, he has posted 88 receptions, 937 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns per season.
The simulated season band runs from 95.0 points at the 10th percentile to 210.6 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 160.7 points. A bad season lands around 95.0; a great one reaches 210.6.
The market ADP across two platforms is 33.2, which translates to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him.
He ranks TE2 at his position and #40 overall, sitting in Tier 7 with a draft value of +29.6 points above replacement level.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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