#38 overall · LV · 139.8 projected half-PPR pts · +27.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.5
Brock Bowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brock Bowers is one of the most target-heavy tight ends in recent memory. In 2024, he saw 153 targets and hauled in 112 receptions for 1,194 receiving yards — a workload that defines a true focal point of an offense. Even in a 2025 season where volume dipped to 86 targets and 64 receptions, he still found the end zone 7 times, showing that his touchdown upside is real and not dependent on a massive target share. Averaged across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has pulled in 88 receptions on 119.5 targets for 937 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns per year. The floor is a high-volume receiver. The ceiling is a touchdown-scoring machine on top of it. At TE2 with a +27.9 draft value above replacement, the production case is straightforward.
What the model projects
The model projects Bowers at 139.8 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output ranks him #38 overall and TE2 at his position, placing him in Tier 6 on the full board. His draft value of +27.9 points above replacement level confirms he projects meaningfully ahead of what a typical replacement tight end would deliver in a 12-team half-PPR league. The projection reflects a player whose role as a primary receiving option is well-established, even as the exact split between volume and touchdowns may shift season to season.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 153 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 206.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 86 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 142.2 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 3.5 | 7.5 | — | 119.5 | 88 | 937 | 6 | — | — | 174.5 |
The range of outcomes
Bowers' recent history illustrates exactly why outcome variance matters at this position. In 2024 he was a volume monster — 153 targets, 112 catches, 1,194 yards — but scored only 5 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 the target count fell to 86, yet he scored 7 times. Those two seasons represent genuinely different paths to fantasy relevance, and both are plausible again. A high-volume, lower-touchdown season looks like 2024. A lower-volume, touchdown-elevated season looks like 2025. The risk is a year where both volume and touchdowns regress simultaneously. His bye falls in Week 13, which is a meaningful consideration for managers in leagues where the fantasy playoffs begin that week.
How to draft him
Bowers is currently being drafted at an average pick of 33.5 across public 2026 drafts — that translates to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft, meaning you are spending a third-round selection to land him. Our model has him at #38 overall and TE2. Plan your board accordingly: if you want Bowers, the market is taking him in the third round, so structure your first two picks around that expectation. His Week 13 bye is worth noting at draft time — if your league's playoff schedule overlaps with that week, factor it into your roster construction.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2024, Bowers posted 153 targets, 112 receptions, and 1,194 receiving yards but only 5 receiving touchdowns. In 2025, his targets dropped to 86 and receptions to 64 for 680 yards, yet he scored 7 receiving touchdowns — a clear illustration that his production profile can shift significantly between volume-driven and touchdown-driven seasons.
The model projects Bowers at 139.8 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #38 overall and TE2 at his position. His draft value sits at +27.9 points above replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR baseline.
Based on a median across two platforms, Bowers' market ADP is 33.5, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend your third-round pick if you want to secure him.
His Week 13 bye is worth flagging. In leagues where the fantasy playoffs start in Week 13, you would be without him in a critical week, so factor that into your roster-building strategy at draft time.