#31 overall · LAR · 157.8 projected half-PPR pts · +35.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 46.3
Davante Adams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Davante Adams arrives in Los Angeles with a résumé that holds up under scrutiny. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025 he averaged 143.3 targets, 82.7 receptions, and 10 receiving touchdowns per year. The touchdown rate is the headline: in 2025 he caught 14 receiving scores on 114 targets — a red-zone efficiency that kept his fantasy value intact even as his yardage dipped to 789. The two seasons before that he posted 1,144 and 1,063 receiving yards respectively, each paired with 8 touchdowns. The floor is a proven route-runner who commands volume; the ceiling is a touchdown machine who can carry a week on his own.
What the model projects
The model projects Adams at 157.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output sits #31 overall and ranks him WR17 at his position. His draft value of +35.3 points above replacement confirms he projects meaningfully above the baseline for a startable wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR league. He lands in Tier 6 on the full board — a cluster of players whose projected surplus is real but separated from the elite tiers above.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 103 | 1144 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 213.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 85 | 1063 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 196.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 60 | 789 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 192.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 143.3 | 82.7 | 998.7 | 10 | — | — | 201.2 |
The range of outcomes
Adams's three-year history illustrates the variance a drafter is accepting. His receiving yards ranged from 789 (2025) to 1,144 (2023), while his touchdown total swung from 8 (2023 and 2024) to 14 (2025). That touchdown volatility is the primary driver of his season-to-season swings — a year where the scores regress toward his 10-per-season average looks very different from a year where he replicates 2025's efficiency. His target share also contracted from 175 in 2023 to 114 in 2025, so the new LAR context will determine whether volume recovers or stays compressed. The upside is a high-touchdown, 1,000-yard season; the downside is a repeat of 2025's yardage line without the touchdown spike to compensate.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Adams going at pick 46.3 — that is round 4, pick 10 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across 2 platforms). Plan accordingly: if you want him, you need to be ready to spend a fourth-round pick. His bye is Week 11, so account for that when building roster depth. At WR17 with a +35.3 draft value, he projects as a startable contributor, and the touchdown upside his recent history demonstrates makes him worth targeting in that range.
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Questions drafters ask
Adams averaged 10 receiving touchdowns per season from 2023 through 2025, with totals of 8, 8, and 14 in those respective years.
The model projects him at 157.8 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #31 overall and WR17 at his position, with a draft value of +35.3 points above replacement.
Market ADP places him at pick 46.3 — round 4, pick 10 in a 12-team draft — so budget a fourth-round selection if he's on your target list.
His target volume has declined from 175 in 2023 to 114 in 2025, and his yardage dropped to 789 that same year. If his new LAR context doesn't restore volume and his touchdown rate regresses toward his three-year average of 10, the production floor is lower than his 2025 touchdown spike suggests.