#38 overall · CLE · 158.7 projected half-PPR pts · +30.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 48.3
Quinshon Judkins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Quinshon Judkins carried the ball 230 times for 827 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns in 2025, adding 26 receptions on 36 targets for 171 receiving yards. That is a full workload profile: a back who touches it enough to matter on the ground and shows up in the passing game. The 36 targets in particular signal a role that extends beyond pure rushing work, which matters in half-PPR scoring. His draftValue sits at +30.5, meaning the projection puts him meaningfully above replacement level at the running back position. He lands at RB22 and #38 overall, inside Tier 7.
What the model projects
The projection is 158.7 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That number reflects a back with a proven carry volume, a modest but real receiving role, and a touchdown floor established by his 2025 work. His bye week is Week 11, which is worth noting for roster management late in the season.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 230 | 827 | 7 | 36 | 26 | 171 | 154.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 230 | 827 | 7 | 36 | 26 | 171 | 154.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a running back whose workload and efficiency can shift considerably from year to year. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 65.4 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go at the position. The 25th percentile is 113.5 points, the median outcome is 168.4 points, the 75th percentile is 216.1 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 251.4 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is nearly 186 points, so drafters should understand they are accepting real variance when they roster him. The upside, however, is genuine: a top-10% season puts him in a range that would far exceed his current rank.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Judkins is ranked #38 overall and RB22. The market is currently drafting him at pick 48.3, which works out to the 4th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. Given his bye falls in Week 11, plan your roster depth accordingly so you are not caught short at running back during that stretch.
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Questions drafters ask
He logged 230 rush attempts for 827 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 36 targets, 26 receptions, and 171 receiving yards. That is a full-season workload at the position.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 251.4 half-PPR points. Only 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above that number, so it is a genuine upside outcome, not a base case.
The market ADP is 48.3, which translates to the 4th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft. That is when you would need to spend a selection to get him.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 65.4 half-PPR points. That is the floor in the worst 10% of projected outcomes, a reminder that running back variance is real and significant for this player.
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Beyond the numbers
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