#53 overall · WAS · 142.0 projected half-PPR pts · +13.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 49.2
Terry McLaurin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
McLaurin has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons in 2023 and 2024, catching 79 and 82 passes on 132 and 117 targets respectively. The 2024 campaign added a career-best 13 receiving touchdowns, demonstrating the kind of upside that makes him a legitimate weekly starter. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averages 103 targets, 66.3 receptions, 893.3 receiving yards, and 6.7 receiving touchdowns per year. The target volume is consistent, and the 2024 touchdown rate shows what the ceiling looks like when things break right. His draftValue sits at +13.6, meaning the projection places him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR24 and #53 overall in Tier 8.
What the model projects
The projection is 142.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That is the headline number. McLaurin carries a bye in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management purposes. The point estimate of 142.0 sits modestly below the median simulated season of 148.6, reflecting the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 132 | 79 | 1002 | 4 | — | — | — | 163.7 |
| 2024 | 117 | 82 | 1096 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226.8 |
| 2025 | 60 | 38 | 582 | 3 | — | — | — | 95.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 103 | 66.3 | 893.3 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 162.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of McLaurin's outlook. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 65.6 points. The 25th percentile is 105.3 points. The median is 148.6 points. The 75th percentile reaches 182.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 217.9 points. That is a spread of more than 150 points between the p10 and p90 outcomes. The 2025 season, in which he finished with 582 receiving yards, 38 receptions, 60 targets, and 3 touchdowns, illustrates what the low end of that band looks like in practice. The 2024 season, with 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns, illustrates the high end. Both outcomes are plausible again.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McLaurin's market ADP is 49.2, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 5.01 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the fifth round, first pick. If you want him, that is when you need to spend the pick. He ranks #53 overall in this model. His bye falls in Week 7, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that week.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 103 targets per year. In 2023 he saw 132 targets; in 2024, 117; and in 2025, 60.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 65.6 half-PPR points. The 2025 season, which produced 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 targets, is a real-world reference point for what that range looks like.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 217.9 points. The 2024 season, in which McLaurin caught 82 passes for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns, is the clearest historical reference for what a high-end outcome produces.
His market ADP is 49.2 across two platforms, which works out to pick 5.01 in a 12-team snake draft. Round 5, first pick is when the market is taking him.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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