Terry McLaurin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Terry McLaurin has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons in 2023 (1,002 yards, 79 receptions, 132 targets, 4 touchdowns) and 2024 (1,096 yards, 82 receptions, 117 targets, 13 touchdowns). That 2024 touchdown total is the kind of number that resets a receiver's fantasy ceiling. The 2025 season was abbreviated — 582 yards, 38 receptions, 60 targets, 3 touchdowns — but the three-year averages still show a receiver who commands 103 targets per season and converts them into 893 receiving yards and 6.7 touchdowns annually. McLaurin's draft value sits at +29.6, meaning he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR20 and #37 overall, placing him in Tier 6 on the board. The floor is real, the ceiling has already been demonstrated.

What the model projects

The projection is 152.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That point estimate earns McLaurin a +29.6 draft value surplus over replacement level at wide receiver, a WR20 position rank, and a #37 overall rank. He sits in Tier 6. Note Washington's Week 7 bye — roster depth at the position will matter when that week arrives.

The range of outcomes

McLaurin's recent history illustrates exactly why his outcome band is wide. In 2024 he caught 13 touchdown passes on 117 targets — a high-efficiency, high-volume season. In 2025 he managed just 60 targets and 3 scores. The three-year average of 6.7 receiving touchdowns sits between those poles, and touchdown variance is the primary driver of his range. A season closer to the 2024 profile — strong target share, double-digit scores — pushes him well above the 152.1 projection. A repeat of the 2025 workload compresses the outcome significantly. His receiving yardage has been more stable: 1,002 in 2023, 1,096 in 2024, and a pace consistent with those numbers when healthy. Drafters should price in both the upside that 13 touchdowns proved is attainable and the downside that a shortened role can materialize.

How to draft him

The market is currently taking McLaurin at pick 46.0 on average — that translates to the 4th round, 10th pick in a 12-team snake draft (4.10). Our model has him at #37 overall. Plan your board accordingly: if McLaurin is a target, the market data from two platforms suggests you will need to commit a fourth-round pick to secure him. His bye falls in Week 7, so account for that when building out your WR depth in the rounds that follow.

In 2024 McLaurin posted 1,096 receiving yards, 82 receptions on 117 targets, and 13 receiving touchdowns. The three-year average from 2023–2025 is 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season, so 13 sits well above that mean — touchdown regression is a real possibility. His yardage, however, has been consistent at 1,002 and 1,096 in his two full seasons, suggesting the volume floor is genuine even if the touchdown ceiling fluctuates.

McLaurin finished 2025 with 582 receiving yards, 38 receptions, 60 targets, and 3 touchdowns — well below his prior two seasons. The three-year averages (103 targets, 893 yards, 6.7 TDs) reflect that down year but still show a productive receiver. The 2025 numbers are part of the outcome range a drafter should price in, not dismiss.

McLaurin projects for 152.1 half-PPR fantasy points, which produces a +29.6 draft value surplus over replacement level. That places him at WR20 by position rank and #37 overall, in Tier 6 on the board.

Based on a median across two platforms, McLaurin is currently being drafted at pick 46.0 — the equivalent of pick 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft. If he is on your target list, that is the round where you should expect to spend a pick to get him.