DJ Moore — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

DJ Moore arrives in Buffalo with a three-year track record that is hard to dismiss. He has cleared 96 receptions and 140 targets in back-to-back seasons (2023 and 2024), and his 2023 line of 1,364 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on 136 targets stands as a legitimate WR1 campaign. The target volume has been consistent: 120.3 per season on average across the last three years, with 81.3 receptions and 1,004 receiving yards per year over that same stretch. He also adds a modest but real rushing dimension, averaging 11 rush attempts and 58.3 rush yards per season over the three-year window, with a touchdown on the ground in two of the last three years. That multi-layer usage keeps his floor from collapsing entirely even in quieter receiving weeks. His draftValue sits at +11.7, meaning the projection places him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR24 and #55 overall, inside Tier 8.

What the model projects

The projection for Moore is 140.4 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That is a number consistent with his three-year receiving average and reflects a receiver who has shown he can produce at volume when targets are present. His bye falls in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management purposes. At WR24 and #55 overall in Tier 8, the model places him as a back-end starter or high-end flex option in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band for Moore is wide, and that width is the central fact a drafter needs to sit with. The p10 outcome is 64.1 points, a season that would render him a waiver-wire disappointment. The p25 is 103.2 points, still a below-average starter. The median simulated season lands at 146.2 points, close to but slightly above the point estimate of 140.4. The p75 outcome is 180.5 points, a genuine WR2 season. The p90 is 216.1 points, a number that would make him a weekly starter with upside. The gap between the p10 and p90 is more than 150 points, which signals meaningful variance. His 2025 line of 682 receiving yards and 50 receptions on 85 targets sits at the lower end of his recent range, and his 2023 peak sits near the top. Both data points live inside that band, which tells you the spread is grounded in his actual history.

How to draft him

Moore's market ADP is 53.2, which works out to pick 5.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #55 overall. In practical terms, you are spending a fifth-round pick to land him. That is the decision point: if you reach Round 5 without a wide receiver you feel good about, Moore is a name to have circled. His target history and receiving volume give him a real floor, but the band is wide enough that you want him as a complementary piece rather than your entire receiving corps. Pair him with a higher-floor option elsewhere in your lineup and the variance becomes manageable. His Week 7 bye is early enough that it should not disrupt a playoff push, but it is worth tracking when you set your roster construction.

Moore has averaged 120.3 targets per season over the 2023-2025 window. He saw 136 targets in 2023, 140 in 2024, and 85 in 2025, for a three-year average of 81.3 receptions and 1,004 receiving yards per season.

The projection is 140.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR24 at the position level and #55 overall, placing him in Tier 8. His draft value is +11.7 points above replacement level.

The simulated season band runs from 64.1 points at the p10 (bottom 10% of outcomes) to 216.1 points at the p90 (top 10%). The median simulated season is 146.2 points. A bad season lands him near the waiver wire; a great season makes him a weekly WR2 or better.

His market ADP is 53.2, which translates to pick 5.05 in a 12-team draft. Plan to spend a fifth-round pick if you want him on your roster.