#59 overall · BUF · 133.6 projected half-PPR pts · +11.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 64.8
DJ Moore — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DJ Moore arrives in Buffalo carrying a track record that is hard to ignore. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 120.3 targets and 81.3 receptions per year — the kind of volume that keeps a receiver relevant regardless of circumstance. His 2023 season stands as the clearest proof of concept: 136 targets, 96 catches, 1,364 receiving yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns. Even in 2024, when his yardage dipped to 966, he still drew 140 targets and hauled in 98 receptions, demonstrating that the target share was real and durable. The move to Buffalo puts him in a high-powered offense with a proven quarterback, and his three-year average of 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season shows he has consistently found the end zone. Add in a modest but real rushing role — 14 carries in 2024, 15 in 2025 — and Moore brings a floor built on volume with a ceiling that a new environment could lift.
What the model projects
The projection for Moore is 133.6 half-PPR fantasy points, producing a Draft Value of +11.0 above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus lands him at #59 overall and WR30, placing him in Tier 7 on the board. The projection reflects his three-year averages — roughly 1,004 receiving yards, 81 receptions, and 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season — while accounting for the context of his new team. A positive Draft Value means the model sees him as a contributor above what a freely available replacement-level receiver would provide, not merely a roster filler.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 136 | 96 | 1364 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 75 | 0 | 140 | 98 | 966 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 187.1 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 79 | 1 | 85 | 50 | 682 | 6 | — | 0 | 0 | 147.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | — | 11 | 58.3 | 0.7 | 120.3 | 81.3 | 1004 | 6.7 | 0.7 | — | — | 192.5 |
The range of outcomes
Moore's season-outcome band illustrates meaningful variance. His 2025 season — 85 targets, 50 receptions, 682 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns — represents the kind of floor a drafter should be prepared for: reduced volume, but touchdowns keeping the floor from collapsing entirely. His 2023 ceiling — 136 targets, 96 receptions, 1,364 yards, 8 touchdowns — shows what the upside looks like when everything clicks. The 2024 season sits in between: elite target volume (140) but modest yardage (966), a reminder that catch rate and yards-per-target can fluctuate independently of opportunity. The three-year receiving touchdown average of 6.7 provides some consistency in the scoring column, but the gap between his best and worst recent yardage totals (682 vs. 1,364) is wide enough that drafters should model both scenarios before committing.
How to draft him
Moore is ranked #59 overall and WR30. The market is currently drafting him at pick 64.8 — round 6, pick 5 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means in a standard 12-team league, you should expect to spend a sixth-round pick to secure him. His bye is Week 7, which is worth noting for early-season roster management. At WR30 with a positive Draft Value, he projects as a contributor above replacement level — a back-end starter or high-upside flex option depending on how your roster builds around him.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, Moore averaged 120.3 targets per year. He saw 136 targets in 2023, 140 in 2024, and 85 in 2025, showing that high-volume seasons are well within his range.
Moore is projected for 133.6 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #59 overall and WR30 with a Draft Value of +11.0 above replacement level. He sits in Tier 7 on the board.
The market is currently taking him at an average of pick 64.8 — round 6, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan to spend a sixth-round selection if you want him.
His 2025 season — 85 targets, 50 receptions, 682 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns — represents a recent floor. Even in that down year, he scored 6 times, which helped cushion the fantasy impact of the reduced yardage.