#85 overall · DEN · 113.6 projected half-PPR pts · -3.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 82.8
J.K. Dobbins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dobbins arrives in Denver with a 2024 season on his résumé that showed what he can do when healthy and featured: 905 rush yards on 195 attempts, 9 rushing touchdowns, and 32 receptions for 153 yards. That is a legitimate three-down workload, and the touchdown production in particular signals a back who was trusted near the goal line. The 2025 season was more modest — 772 rush yards on 153 attempts, 4 rushing touchdowns, 11 receptions for 37 yards — but the volume was still there. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 118.7 rush attempts, 566.3 rush yards, and 4.7 rushing touchdowns per year, with 15 receptions and 68.3 receiving yards on 18.3 targets. The floor is a back who sees the ball regularly; the ceiling, as 2024 demonstrated, is a double-digit-touchdown threat.
What the model projects
The model projects Dobbins at 113.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output places him at RB27 and #85 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -3.2, meaning the projection comes in just below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The number is close to the replacement line — this is not a player projected to crater your roster, but the model does not see him outpacing what a waiver-wire back would provide at the margin.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 905 | 9 | 38 | 32 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 772 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 118.7 | 566.3 | 4.7 | 18.3 | 15 | 68.3 | — | — | — | 99.2 |
The range of outcomes
Dobbins is a back whose season-to-season variance is real and documented. In 2024 he posted 905 rush yards and 9 touchdowns; in 2025 those numbers fell to 772 yards and 4 touchdowns on fewer attempts. The three-year aggregate smooths that out, but the year-to-year swings are meaningful. A strong outcome looks like the 2024 version — sustained volume, double-digit touchdowns, and enough receiving work to add a floor. A weak outcome looks more like 2023, when he managed just 8 rush attempts and 22 yards. The path to the upside runs through health and a clear lead-back role; the downside is a season where opportunity is limited and the counting stats reflect it.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Dobbins going at pick 82.8 — round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #85 overall and RB27, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is slightly negative, so he is a back you are drafting for upside and role clarity rather than a guaranteed surplus. In a snake draft, round 7 is a reasonable spot to take a calculated swing on a back with a proven high-end season in his recent history, as long as you have already addressed higher-tier positions earlier in the draft. His bye is Week 10, worth noting when constructing your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he carried the ball 195 times for 905 rush yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, adding 32 receptions on 38 targets for 153 receiving yards — a full three-down workload with strong goal-line production.
The model projects 113.6 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him RB27 and #85 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -3.2 — just below replacement level at the position.
Market ADP puts him at pick 82.8, which works out to round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is currently charging, based on a median across two platforms.
His 2023 season is the cautionary tale: just 8 rush attempts, 22 rush yards, and 1 touchdown. When opportunity dries up — whether through injury or role reduction — his counting stats can fall sharply, and his three-year average of 118.7 rush attempts per season reflects that inconsistency.